CURRENT COMMENTARY - POLITICS_1

Miscellaneous Thoughts Posted to Social Media Between April and June 2023

by William J. Dodwell

·       BIDEN-McCARTHY DEBT/SPENDING DEAL:  NOT A NOTHINGBURGER, BUT SMALL POTATOES.  

By William J. Dodwell June 1, 2023

The Biden-McCarthy agreement

Throughout current debt-ceiling negotiations, Republicans have postured hard about arresting the trajectory of the $32 trillion national indebtedness. But Speaker McCarthy has come up short in his deal with President Biden that just passed the House.  He cites broad progress through record spending cuts, but avoids mentioning the paltry amounts of savings that are of little consequence.  That more Democrats voted for the bill than Republicans is telling. Consider the following:

-          The GOP replaced its original bill to raise the debt limit by $4.5 trillion in exchange for spending cuts with a suspension of the current $31.4 trillion limit that leaves no ceiling whatsoever until 2025. Given Democratic control of government, this blank check permits unlimited spending into 2025 that invites more profligacy of the sort seen since Biden took office.

-          The current pact freezes spending at the 2024 level with a 1% cap on a fiscal 2025 increase. This contrasts with the original Republican offer to limit spending at the lower 2022 $6.3 trillion level with a 1% cap on annual spending for 10 years.  Both proposals include trillions of dollars of one-off Covid 19 spending needlessly built into the budget baseline of future years. Fixing spending at pre-Covid levels would be much more meaningful. The proposed legislation will reduce the deficit $1.5 trillion over 10 years.  That is merely 10% - $150 billion annually against a projected 2023 deficit of $1.5 trillion.

-          The agreement eliminates only about $30 billion of the originally asked $300 billion of unspent Covid funds. This is a terrible waste now that even the president has declared the pandemic over.

-          McCarthy settled for eliminating less than $2 billion of the $87 billion IRS funding for 87,000 new agents the Republicans wanted nixed.

-          Republicans have touted a victory for reinstituting workfare for food stamp benefits by tightening the eligibility thresholds and enforcement mechanisms. But historically, the states have gamed the requirements through rigged reporting and likely will continue to do so. What’s more, the Republicans failed to win workfare for the much larger Medicaid program. This is progress for the nation’s moral fabric, but provides little toward alleviating the debt. Nonetheless, employers still desperate to find workers in the wake of the pandemic will get some relief.

-          The current agreement ends Biden’s moratorium for student debt repayments, but only for this summer.  His overall proposed $400 billion forgiveness is pending a likely Supreme Court decision against its constitutionality.

-          Republicans achieved a defense spending increase, but less than the rate of inflation.  In view of the growing China threat and the diminished state of the U.S. military, this is troublesome.

The Biden-McCarthy proposal is a long way from the president’s original insistence on a “clean bill” (no spending cuts) without negotiation.  But that is the way the process works.  Ask for the moon and hope for Palm Springs.  However, it looks like McCarthy settled for Cleveland. 

The final bill is pending the Senate vote amid much Democratic demagoguery about default, as occurred in the House. In any case, the upcoming appropriations process will provide carrot and stick leverage for extracting cuts through Republican votes to fund or defund particular agencies. What’s more, if Congress does not pass the 12 appropriations bills by year-end, an across-the-board 1% cut applies to all discretionary spending. This prevents an alternative wasteful omnibus spending bill favored by Democrats.  Progress noted.

The economics

Democrats, and even some Republicans, tend to believe that the U.S. can borrow without limit.  Contributing to this notion was the near 15-year period of corrective, then wonton, spending and borrowing following the Great Financial Crisis that induced little inflation.  That experience gave rise to the new Modern Monetary Theory that posits the Federal Reserve may create any amount of money to fund unlimited Treasury debt.

However, while inflation was contained in the real economy because of languishing consumption and production, it raged in the financial markets as stock and bond prices soared.  This was a result of investors en masse seeking higher returns to escape near-zero interest rates in banks and money markets. Then the multitrillion-dollars of new spending by the Biden administration, also accommodated by the Fed, spawned 40-year high inflation in the real economy. In response, the Fed aggressively raised its benchmark interest rate, which brought down inflation and redirected capital from financial assets back to the real economy, aiding a return to normalcy.

Another reason why the U.S. has been able to issue so much debt on demand is the government’s inviolable faith and credit evidenced by never having defaulted on its bonds. The global investor confidence that inspires, buttressed by a sound economy and strong institutions, contributes to the world reserve status of the dollar, which also attracts massive investment in U.S. treasuries. Liberals believe this track record justifies virtually unlimited debt, despite associated interest consuming a growing share of the budget because of the government’s voracious appetite for capital.

The politics

Getting control of the burgeoning debt and avoiding its economic and geopolitical consequences will take many years, and will depend largely on having control of the presidency and both chambers of congress. The savings contained in the Biden-McCarthy agreement does not put even a dent in the fiscal problem.  Oh, it is a start, but we need orders of magnitude more – even as a start.  

This failure to contain spending materially will ensure continued inflationary pressures that will hamper real economic growth and structurally weaken the dollar. The best prospect for relief is a Republican controlled government that would pass legislation that restricts spending to a reasonable percent of GDP.

Conservative Republicans have to reach critical mass as they shed RINOS from the party, just as Democrats have jettisoned its moderates.  Democrats are not likely to relent in their effort to convert the nation to a socialist state without a series of thorough rebukes at the polls. Is the American electorate up to that task, given heavily leftist mass media that buries truth through silence, obfuscation and censorship? 

The debt crisis is too abstract and remote for most Americans to appreciate. The solution is up to responsible representatives in government consistent with the founding principles of the Republic. But as Ben Franklin said, “A republic is the best form of government, if you can keep it.”  Can the people and their proxies in government maintain it?

Economic disaster undermines the quality of life and amplifies vulnerability to war.  As such, it can catalyze salutary radical change.  Will it take a significantly diminished standard of living that invites increasingly compelling metaphorical comparisons with Venezuela to recognize the danger of the looming fiscal threat? That peril combines with open borders, radicalized institutions and social ills, all deliberately created by the Left embodied by the Democrat Party to destroy the nation.  National bankruptcy and economic stagflation through excessive borrowing is one of the many means by which to accomplish that. 

©2023 William J. Dodwell

DEBT CEILING FOLLIES REDUX 

By William J. Dodwell   May 18, 2023

Once again, government, media and investors fret over raising the federal borrowing limit amid exaggerated fears of default and ensuing Armageddon.The Treasury reached the $31.4 trillion ceiling in January but has relied since on existing cash to pay obligations. However, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says those funds will run out on June 1st. 

 As such, acute concern centers on the government’s ability to roll over Treasury bills coming due after June 1st, that is, sell enough new bills to replace the maturing ones. Investor skittishness about default absent an increase in the debt limit has dampened demand for new issues. A successful rollover provides new cash to redeem maturing debt and has no effect on the limit. Without a rollover, cash is not available to retire old paper, hence potential default. 

Some $5.6 trillion resides in money market funds that consist largely of short-term federal debt, some exclusively so.  Much of that money is a result of investors moving funds in the last year out of banks to capture much higher market yields caused by the Fed’s interest-rate hikes aimed at combating inflation.  But current anxiety about imminent default on short-term debt has prompted some investors to move money back to banks, and others not to buy, raising certain T-Bill yields to almost 6% recently. Financial sage, Warren Buffet, says the risk of default here does not warrant this action.

Of course, Treasury could offer a high enough interest rate to attract buyers of new issues.  Also, the Fed could purchase new debt as a lender of last resort.  Or, the government could shut down to conserve cash for debt payments.

In any case, there are plenty of government funds from tax collections to service the debt, as well as pay high priority bills without issuing new debt. The Treasury could defer lesser obligations as necessary pending funds availability from spending cuts, tax increases, or eventual new debt issuance. Democrats oppose using tax revenues in lieu of debt to pay incurred liabilities because that is at the expense of earmarked spending. They want a “clean bill” that authorizes raising the debt ceiling with no conditions.

As usual, Democrats and their allies in mainstream media demagogue the issue to avoid spending cuts as much as possible in the debt negotiations. House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, has presented the Republican proposal that raises the debt ceiling $1.5 trillion in exchange for $4.5 trillion of expense reduction. This includes: keeping discretionary spending at 2022 levels and a 1% cap on annual spending growth thereafter; revoking climate-change provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act; returning unspent Covid funds to the Treasury; work for welfare; rescinding funds for the hiring of 87,000 new IRS agents; and nixing Biden’s executive action concerning student loan relief.  The question is what small percent of this excellent offering the Democrats will agree to. And, how many Republicans will cave to only slight concessions by Democrats.

Both Democrats and Republicans believe default is prohibitive, as it would precipitate mass panic and seismic political repercussions. Many millions of individuals would suffer sizable haircuts on savings.  Global contagion would spread among financial institutions as they incur write-downs of government securities positions and collateral, and fail to deliver on counterparty obligations. Confidence in the financial system would plummet increasing the cost of debt henceforth, while triggering a radical decline in capital flows essential to economic vitality.

However, freezing the debt ceiling would impose significant fiscal discipline in the face of a $31.7 trillion liability that could force spending cuts formerly off the table. Given sufficient resistance to tax increases, one might say default is the only way to overcome the deleterious politics that precludes solutions to the debt problem that increasingly undermines potential growth. President Trump in his CNN town hall interview last week suggested he would contemplate default in the current circumstance to avoid a much worse one in the future borne of continued unchecked profligacy. That is a courageous public statement.

As always, Congress and the president will raise the debt ceiling after a period of brinkmanship.  After refusing to negotiate for months, insisting on no concessions, President Biden has finally relented, even canceling a foreign trip to participate in negotiations as the dubious June 1st apocalypse looms.  Both sides have ruled out default.  But in the overall scheme of things, that might not be a bad option.

©2023 William J. Dodwell

HAS LGBTQ WOKENESS INTERFERED WITH THE INVESTIGATION OF THE SILICONE VALLEY BANK FAILURE? 

By William J. Dodwell  May 8, 2023

Are regulators and media protecting Mary C. Daly, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, amid the post-mortem of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse? Even though she is the key figure associated with the debacle who had direct regulatory responsibility for the failed bank, the House Oversight Committee investigating the event did not call her to testify. Rather, it only sent her a letter requesting documents and relied chiefly on the testimony of Charles Barr, the overall Fed regulatory head residing in Washington DC. Nor does the media cite Daly personally in respect of the fiasco. By my observation, there has been no curiosity concerning Ms. Daly’s deafening silence about the bank failure.  

Is this because she is an avowed lesbian, a sacrosanct status in today’s atmosphere of ultra-wokeness? The case is similar to Audrey Hale, the self-identified transsexual who recently committed mass murder in Tennessee.  The police still withhold her manifesto from the public because of suspected content that might invite backlash against her sexuality demographic.

A startling example of Ms. Daly’s seeming protection is evident in the May 8, 2023 issue of Barron’s that features an article by Thomas Hoenig, “Will the Fed Be Ready If More Banks Fail?”  The piece criticizes Barr’s report of findings for skirting the malfeasance of the San Francisco Fed with respect to its decisions and communications concerning the problems at SVB.  But, while Hoenig raises important questions about the role of the San Francisco office, he glaringly omits any mention of Mary Daly by name, consistent with general media reporting on the issue. 

Or, is Mary Daly getting special treatment because of her obsessive crusade for diversity, climate change policy and the rest of the ESG canon?  Many have suggested this distraction was instrumental in the SVB regulatory lapse, again without mentioning Daly’s name.  Was she pressured to resist adding operating constraints to keep loans flowing to risky cash-hungry start-ups of wealthy clientele, many of whom are major Democratic donors? The FDIC’s decision to protect exclusively SVB’s many sizable uninsured deposits of those elites suggests partisanship.

The supposed protection of Mary Daly invokes a similar case: the suspected shielding of Jamie Gorelick by the 9/11 Commission and the body politic.  Gorelick as deputy attorney general in the Clinton administration issued a memo in 1995 calling for greater separation between the CIA and the FBI that forbade the sharing of intelligence information with criminal investigators. Many believe this created communication silos that contributed to a vulnerability that permitted the 9/11 attack. Ironically, Gorelick was a member of the 9/11 Commission, and therefore never held to account for this calamitous indiscretion.

Specifically, a Defense Department intelligence unit called Able Danger, which explored communications breakdown between the CIA and FBI, claimed it identified a few of the 9/11 terrorists more than a year before the attack.  However, Able Danger, on orders of government lawyers, never sent this information to the FBI consistent with Gorelick’s 1995 directive.  Is there a connection? In addition, the 9/ll Commission downplayed the Able Danger finding, seemingly to protect Jamie Gorelick.

So serious was this issue that Pennsylvania Republican Congressman, Curt Weldon, on the House floor aggressively urged a probe of Able Danger in 2005.  The Defense Department resisted the investigation. What’s more, his persistence made him a target, a fate that ultimately sabotaged his reelection for an 11th term.  The 9/11 Commission made no mention of Able Danger or the Gorelick memo in its report. Was this bombshell suppressed to prevent possibly pinning the 9/11 disaster on a woman?

One might ask why woke mainstream media does not protect American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten from the vilification she endures for closing classrooms so long during the Covid pandemic, and for fostering leftist indoctrination in in the schools.  In fact, she has claimed she suffers public scorn because she is Jewish and a woman.

The reason she is hung out to dry is that her transgression is more tangible and pervasive inasmuch as it affects children and their parents everywhere.  Ms. Weingarten has been called evil incarnate and is now universally despised.  This much opprobrium is too formidable to protect against, even for dedicated wokesters.  To do so would extend the enmity to her defenders.

Identity politics is a common tool of the Left to garner power by silencing critics. It produces bad outcomes whether gratuitously promoting protected classes or exempting them from wrongdoing. In the case of investigations, that practice gets in the way of truth. 

©2023 William J. Dodwell

Miscellaneous Thoughts Posted to Social Media Between January and March 2023

by William J. Dodwell

• THE SHORT EVOLUTION OF THE DEMOCRATIC LURCH TO THE FAR LEFT. Many wonder how Democrat politics has gotten so bad so fast.  The advocacy and policies of the Democrat Party in its sudden lurch to the far left have shocked the nation. They probably alarm even most Democrats, notwithstanding their perverse loyalty at the ballot box. Here is how this seismic ideological shift has evolved in just the last several years.

Democrat sins

There is virtually no room for moderates in the Democrat Party anymore.  The new party espouses unprecedented extremes that undermine traditional social, cultural and economic standards that aim to destroy America.  Tactics include the following pathologies: 

§  open borders

§  weakened law enforcement

§  reckless spending and debt

§  abortion up to the time of birth

§  a cult-like obsession with climate-change

§  politicized authoritarian dictates and dissent suppression concerning Covid 19

§  mutilation of children in the name of transgender politics

§  a neurotic fixation on race to divide America

§  leftist indoctrination and abandonment of academic standards in schools and colleges

§  the targeting of conservatives by the FBI, DOJ, DHS, and the CIA

§  government restraint on conservative speech in collusion with Big Tech

§  a politicized military

§  a tyrannical executive branch

§  a politicized judiciary

§  systemic election fraud

The Left continues to push the envelope toward radical policies with little resistance. Its zeal for control was evident in government authoritarian practices during the Covid pandemic in contravention to dissenting scientific views.  At the state level, Democrat governors mandated the most austere Covid policies.  

The Democrat Party promotes identity politics in the extreme through a new wokeness that pervades all institutions, and pushes a tyrannical progressive agenda.  The Left strives to control language and behavior in a governmental effort to divide and conquer the citizenry, abetted by the newly corrupt media.  The ultimate goal:  to destroy America and reconstitute it as a globalist socialist state.

Corrupt mass media

Gone is the once sacrosanct “fourth estate” that used to be relied on for objective reporting and speaking truth to power.  Today mass media is a handmaiden of the Democrat Party in its effort to transition to the new order. That media ignore President Biden’s past influence peddling corroborated by his son Hunter’s laptop contents. The media have created a virtual news blackout of the chaos at the southern border caused by Biden’s open border policy conducted in direct contravention of the law. The January 6 sham congressional investigation was unchallenged by the media.

And the media were wholly complicit in perpetrating a false government narrative about Covid 19 that ignored real science.  That propaganda spread lies about the threat of the virus, the efficacy of mitigation protocols, especially as it relates to school closures, the value of therapeutics such as hydroxychloride and Ivermectin, and the necessity, effectiveness and safety of vaccines.    

The origins of the transformation

The lurch to the radical left started in the Obama administration premised on his expressed desire “to transform America”.  In particular, the Department of Justice became hyper-politicized under AG Eric Holder as he filled the ranks with permanent avowed leftists.  Former AG Mukasey under President George W. Bush said that these activists even hung posters of Marxist revolutionary Che Guevara on the wall. In addition, Obama’s IRS blocked approval of conservative groups seeking standard tax exemption. This climate does not bode well for equal justice. Indeed, the rule of law is under siege.

Most reprehensible was the complicity of the Justice Department and FBI in advancing allegations that candidate Trump colluded with Russia. To that end, they knowingly presented fabricated evidence to the FISA court to get permission to surveil him.  This ruse continued even after Trump took office in an effort to depose him. Of course, the Russia collusion story has been completely debunked.

The Trump factor

The principal impetus to the radicalization of the Democrat Party was the emergence of Donald Trump and his bid for the presidency in 2015.  His unspeakable frank talk against the sacred cows of the Left and its agenda constituted an unprecedented threat that galvanized a Democratic effort to block him.  Even establishment Republicans disliked him.  Recall that after the party “post-mortem” following the 2012 loss to Obama, Republicans were poised to moderate. In particular, it planned a more conciliatory stance toward immigration. But Trump arrived and went in the exact opposite direction to the dismay of the “It’s not who we are.” RINOS.

In the face of Republican cowardice, Trump spoke plainly about rapists, murderers and drug traffickers crossing the border and his determination to stop them by building a wall.  He called the climate change agenda a hoax.  He was the first to challenge decades-long trade deals grossly unfair to the U.S., especially with China.  He called for massive deregulation that weakened the power of the administrative state (the swamp), and he advocated across-the-board tax cuts. He eliminated Obama’s outrageously restrictive rules of engagement on the battle field against ISIS and consequently dissolved that enemy in short order.

All of this gravely threatened the liberal establishment like never before.  Democratic hatred for Trump led to the orchestrated rigging of the 2020 presidential election results that removed him. Over 60 judges refused to adjudicate abundant evidence of fraud out of fear of retaliation by the Left.

Now Trump is running for president again.  The Left is panicking as there is no compelling Democrat opposition and Biden’s record is a disaster.

Call to action

What will the Democrat Party do?  You can bet that election fraud is at the top of the agenda. Democrats will do anything to stop Trump again and will get the full support of the corrupt media.  They are utterly devoid of integrity. After all, they are leftists.

As such, Republicans have to galvanize in unprecedented resistance.  They must scrutinize and publicize the performance record of candidates at all levels of government who appear amenable to the Left’s Marxist advance, including RINOs. Then Republicans have to translate that exposure into massive opposition turnout at the ballot box. In view of the Biden malaise, many independents and even Democrats are likely persuadable.

The Right must invoke Archimedes’ law of physics against the Left:  For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.  As the Democrats have moved far left, the Republicans ought to move commensurately right.  Too much compromise moves the center to the left as Democrats try to normalize their extremes. 3/20/23

• SILICONE VALLEY BANK FAILURE RECALLS THE 1980s SAVINGS AND LOAN DEBACLE.  For some, the failure of the Silicone Valley Bank invokes an inaccurate comparison to the 2008 financial crisis. But a reasonable analogy compares SVB with the raft of savings and loan bank insolvencies in the 1980s.  Let’s look at the parallels.

Silicone Valley Bank

SVB failed because of mismanaged interest-rate and duration risk from investing short-term deposits in long-term treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to achieve a little extra yield during a decade of very low interest rates. When the Fed eventually executed a series of ongoing rate increases to combat inflation, the value of the bank’s long-term assets axiomatically declined significantly because of their more interest-rate sensitive durations that the bank did not hedge. 

Consequently, SVB raised less money from the sale of securities to satisfy deposit withdrawals.  Hence, a liquidity squeeze and a run on the bank when the problem became public.  What’s more, the forced selling of bank securities compounded the price declines and concomitant realized capital losses.  

SVB was extremely remiss in not shortening durations in its portfolio, or adopting hedges, to avoid the inevitable capital losses on long-term fixed-income assets.  The bank should have expected the losses from well-anticipated Fed rate hikes. The problem was a lapse in basic risk management, not an arcane derivative strategy gone awry or a wave of defaults like past financial fiascos.

SVB was apparently unaware of the magnitude of its unrealized portfolio losses because it classified the bulk of its securities as “held-to-maturity”.  According to regulation, the bank does not have to mark these assets to market in its financial reporting. 

If the bank had classified most of its bonds “available-for-sale”, regulation requires it to mark them to market. Then the significant capital losses from rising interest rates would have been transparent, prompting the bank to shorten portfolio durations and greatly avoid those losses. Since the deposit base belonged predominately to start-up technology companies in constant need of capital, SVB should have known to classify securities “available-for-sale” to correspond to deposits subject to regular withdrawal.

SVB has long touted woke policies as an advocate for ESG investing, LGBT activism, and internal obsessiveness over climate change and diversity.  Many speculate whether this distraction might have been at the expense of portfolio due diligence. Astonishingly, a similarly woke San Francisco Fed did not detect the glaring anomalies in its supervisory examinations.

At present, the FDIC is trying to sell SVB via auction.  If unsuccessful, it will dissolve the bank through a distribution of assets.  SVB with $200 billion of assets is the largest bank failure, second to Washington Mutual with $300 billion that failed during the Great Financial Crisis. Signature Bank, also whipsawed by Fed rate hikes, is the third largest failure with $100 billion of assets.

Regional bank stocks have fallen dramatically as contagion fear generated widespread deposit withdrawals, even despite sound balance sheets. Prices will likely recover in light of regulatory sensitivity to psychological contagion. The Treasury and the Fed announced unlimited FDIC insurance and loan support afforded SVB and Signature Bank. But more bank failures could be coming. Contagion concern also has developed in Europe amid comparable anti-inflation rate hikes as in the U.S.

The savings &loan debacle

Similar to the SVB duration mismatch of assets and liabilities, savings and loan banks in the 1980s invested short-term variable-rate deposits in fixed-rate mortgages, as well as illiquid real estate. As rising interest rates lowered the value of the mortgages, and property values cratered while deposit rates rose, bank capital eroded leading to rolling insolvencies.

To overcome the inability to service deposit rate increases to remain competitive, one bank duped customers to convert their deposits to long-term bonds, surrendering their federal deposit insurance. The value of those bonds quickly collapsed leaving the bondholders devastated (until a federal bailout). 

The incentive to commit to a mismatched balance sheet centered on expectations of growth and significant property appreciation that would swell bank profits.  Unfortunately, the euphoria resulted in politically influenced overdevelopment and lending that dashed that prospect. 

Another impetus to risky S&L investing was the increase in the federal deposit insurance limit from $40,000 to $100,000.  As a result, a much higher percent of deposit accounts became fully protected.  This prompted banks to invest more aggressively knowing that depositors were not at risk.

The federal government created the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) that took hundreds of banks into receivership for sale or dissolution over a period of several years.  The debacle ultimately cost taxpayers about $125 billion (about $300 billion in today’s dollars). 

SVB ‘s extreme exposure to interest-rate risk created losses, insolvency and illiquidity that precipitated a run on the bank.  The savings and loan experience was similar where contagion took hold.  In both cases, banks mismanaged the balance sheet. Whereas the S&L crisis resulted in a cost to taxpayers, the SVB losses are borne by the bank with help of a loan facility from the Fed, and by the FDIC, that is funded mainly by large banks. But if many more bank failures ensue, the taxpayer will pay once again.

The 2008 financial crisis

The SVB and savings and loan failures were caused by excessive exposure to interest-rate and liquidity risk arising from mismanagement of the asset/liability structure. By contrast, the Great Financial Crisis centered on default risk flowing from lax mortgage lending standards, mainly predicated on federal affordable housing policy aimed at enabling lower income borrowers to achieve home ownership.

An overly long period of low interest rates and a politically induced relaxation of mortgage lending standards caused home prices to soar.  When massive defaults ensued because of so many unqualified borrowers, those prices plummeted leaving homeowners with mortgages that exceeded their home values. As such, the home as collateral was “under water”, no longer adequately securing the mortgage.

Multiple trillions of dollars of impaired mortgages circulated throughout the financial system through their packaging into mortgage-backed securities and their subsequent trading.  Actual and anticipaed defaults created systemic capital losses because of the intricate interconnectivity of financial institutions. The loss of confidence in the quality of bank-issued mortgage-backed securities, compounded by grossly inflated grading by the rating agencies, triggered massive selling. Agency MBS were guaranteed against default risk by the government which wound up bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through an equity contribution of some $190 billion, which was fully repaid.

Like the MBS selling contagion, the SVB crisis displayed to some extent an irrationally driven panic among depositors seeking to withdraw all their funds.  But that fear subsided when Treasury Secretary Yellin decided to remove the $250,000 FDIC cap to fully protect all accounts of the failed SVB Bank and Signature Bank. The Fed also pledged loan relief to prevent the banks from having to incur losses in the sale of bonds to meet withdrawals.  

Whether this accommodation extends to additional bank failures remains to be seen. Before the FDIC and Fed relief, depositor concern precipitated a massive shift to government securities as a safe haven, bringing down yields a full percentage point.

Of course, the Great Financial Crisis was much larger in scale than the SVB and Signature Bank failures. It involved trillions of dollars of losses in a wide range of asset classes for institutions and individuals.  By contrast, the current debacle affects mostly companies and employees in the technology sector, mainly venture capital start-ups and crypto currency investors.

FDIC bailout and moral hazard

There is room for a little schadenfreude here.  Some might take delight in the fact that most of the current bank failure victims are from Big Tech.  Perhaps this class experienced some bad karma for colluding with government to suppress conservative content in social media.  But the removal of the FDIC deposit cap renders this poetic justice academic.

SVB and Signature Bank depositors are largely wealthy technology companies and their employees who donate handsomely to the Democrat Party. Reportedly, they pressured the Biden administration for FDIC relief. One wonders if the Treasury would have extended the deposit insurance accommodation to other classes of victims.

The rescue has spurred debate about the propriety of bailout, especially considering many of the victims are very wealthy risk-taking businesses and individuals who can afford their losses. What’s more, about 90% of SVB depositors had uninsured deposits in excess of the $250,000 FDIC limit. One company kept nearly $500 million on deposit.  Should they not be responsible for mismanaging their funds? 

Gratuitous government intervention fosters dangerous moral hazard. It engenders expectations of future relief as needed, incentivizing wasteful risky bank investing and relaxed due diligence.  However, damage on the scale of the SVB failure could precipitate contagion that poses a systemic threat to the financial system if rules are not bent. Dodd-Frank aimed to prevent the need for bailouts among the largest banks, but nobody anticipated smaller regional bank failures also could be systemically precarious. We learn that they also can be too big to fail.

Moral hazard notwithstanding, special fiscal and monetary liquidity infusions in dire emergencies can save the financial system and the economy. Certainly, that is true in the wake of the 1987 stock market crash, 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, and, albeit overdone, the Covid pandemic.

The FDIC will conduct the bailout, depending mostly on big bank contributions to the fund. If recipients deplete the fund, taxpayers will cover the remaining claims.  To have the ability to insure deposits in the future, possibly under a more accommodating claim standard, banks will pay higher FDIC fees that they will pass on to customers in the form of new bank charges and reduced services. 

Moral hazard from bailouts can eventually invite recklessness, fraud and inflation that give rise to more catastrophes and rescues. Bank safety requires vigilance and accountability on the part of banks, regulators and customers to prevent bank failure in the first place.  Then massive expensive bailouts become moot.

This government intervention has stanched contagion fears so far. But it remains to be seen whether more banks failed to manage their interest-rate risk in the face of the Fed’s inflation-fighting tightening.  If so, more bank runs may be in store and taxpayers will be on the hook if FDIC funds run out. 3/16/23

• SUBVERTED  DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA.  Winston Churchill famously declared, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” Today, the vulnerability of democracy in America is perhaps more evident than ever as the progressive agenda takes hold. Paradoxically, while free elections endure, the gulf between government representation and the public interest looms large because of anomalies both in government and among the governed. 

The leftist juggernaut

The Democrat Party’s successful lurch to the far-Left in recent years does not comport with the nation’s true convictions, elections notwithstanding. Rather, the rapid advance of Marxist ideology in government is the result of aggressive maneuvering by the Democrat Party that has rid itself of moderates almost entirely, diminishing voter choice. At the same time, its allies in the corrupt and protective mass media foster an uninformed and apathetic electorate through propaganda and news blackouts. In addition, corporate America, Big Tech, academe and even the military embrace the new socialist agenda. Following suit, the schools have discontinued the study of American history and its founding principles. In their place, they teach a grossly distorted anti-America version based on “critical race theory” (CRT). All these institutions to some degree sympathize with the Left’s effort to dismantle the republic in favor of a new socialist state.

The pervasive denigration of our meritocratic traditions and the corruption of institutions has inured the public to undemocratic injustices including: Government pressuring cable television providers to drop conservative networks; Legislative complicity in accommodating systemic election fraud; and government suppression of truth about Covid to empower itself and enrich its operatives through mandates and indiscriminate vaccine sales.  In addition, renegade and compromised attorneys general, duly elected to enforce the law, decriminalize many serious offenses and generally relax prosecution.

Many citizens acquiesce to the absurd energy agenda of elected officials forged in the name of climate-change.  They also might resign themselves to open borders, rampant crime and homelessness, educational decay and indoctrination, despite their opposition. They also adhere to disarming wokeness concerning race, sexuality and transgenderism rooted in unbridled identity politics, notwithstanding their aversion to these ideologies.  

What’s more, campaign funds provided by far-left billionaires subvert the will of the people. Unlike Democrats, Republican billionaires do not donate to facilitate rigged elections (Mark Zuckerberg), or to pay off candidates for attorney general (George Soros) to help destroy the nation through crime. The Left is hell-bent on continually pushing the envelope in a bold disregard for the Constitution in order to foist socialism on the citizenry. As democracy recedes, tyranny and public apathy ascend.

Societal moral decline

Alas, this wanton lawless approach of the Left is working. In part, it is reflective of diminished societal integrity personified by the heralded dishonesty of Presidents Clinton, Obama and Biden. Seemingly, more common criminal behavior in the private sector also exemplifies the malaise as Bernie Madoff, Elizabeth Holmes, and allegedly, Sam Bankman-Fried demonstrated.  Collectively, this behavior breeds a culture of venality that is especially dangerous in government as it impinges on so much that affects the wellbeing of the nation.  Public distrust in government inevitably ensues.

FBI collusion with Big Tech to quash conservative content in social media constitutes a grave threat to democracy that generates distrust of government.  A particular impetus to today’s Democratic intransigence is the party’s intense hatred for Donald Trump who progressives see as a serious danger to the leftist agenda as shown by his policies and actions as president. The supposedly apolitical FBI’s reckless effort to derail his candidacy and presidency through its Crossfire Hurricane initiative shockingly undermined democracy.  The Left is viscerally determined to prevent another term for Trump or anyone like him in the future.

Perhaps more than ever, the aforementioned integrity deficit has engendered a go-along-to-get-along mentality that pervades government at all levels. Shirking their fiduciary duty, elected officials succumb to lobbyists, peer pressure, threats, and media vilification.  They accept bribes and kickbacks. In local government especially, liberal Democrats sometimes run as moderate or conservative Republicans to get elected. Then they govern as leftists.

Legislative leadership denies representatives time to read bills, inviting toxic undemocratic inserts in the dead of night. At worst, unethical politicians create a rubber-stamp government dedicated to self-interest that ultimately results in one-party rule, as in the case of California, New York and Illinois.  And the people be damned. Unaware of this nefarious charade behind the scenes, the voters elect and reelect the scoundrels.  

The Democrat Party and the imperious administrative state

Democrats often cite Republican policies as “a threat to democracy”. Their protestations refer to such Republican positions regarding:  Voter ID to ensure election integrity; Parents objecting to outrageous student curricula at school board meetings; Calls to adjudicate in court abundant documented evidence of determinative fraud in the 2020 presidential election; The one-sided sham congressional investigation of the January 6 incident; and the upholding of constitutional rights.  Of course, Democratic tyranny is the true threat to democracy.  Accusations against the Republicans are pure projection.

Has a too-powerful executive branch contributed to the erosion of democracy? Over time, tremendous incremental power has accrued to unelected bureaucrats in government agencies serving the chief executive, especially in Democratic administrations. Through executive orders and the rulemaking process applied to the implementation of legislation, these operatives can enact policy that could not pass in the legislature.  Oftentimes, the legislature is deliberately vague in writing the law to avoid taking a particular political stand. It then defers to the enforcement judgement of unelected agencies to work out the sensitive details.  Similarly, the judiciary may defer to executive branch expertise to assess the practical application of the law, often resulting in regulatory overreach. The upshot:  Too much power residing in the administrative state to its political advantage and to the people’s detriment.

Often, the result has been tyrannical policies that were never intended in the legislation passed by representatives of the people. Examples are imperious lawsuits and fines imposed by the administrative agencies that bankrupt the victims, or at least intimidate them into compliance with extreme mandates.

This is how the Environmental Protection Agency can charge a citizen some $37,000 a day until he disposes of a puddle it deems a “wetland”.  It is how the Consumer Financial Protection Board can force communities to develop “affordable housing” units aimed at transforming suburbia by effectively merging it with the inner cities.  It is how government can mandate the transition to electric vehicles, or ban gas stoves, notwithstanding the costs and inconveniences, or the lack of even a modicum of interest on the part of the public.

Restoring self-government

Government power has circumvented the will of the people.  It is time to restore self-government lost amid the shift to socialism and tyranny.  Our freedom is sacrosanct.  Most Americans want it, but are too diffident, uninformed or apathetic to fight for it. Ideally, government would safeguard freedom by shrinking and reverting to its originally intended role under the Constitution and Bill of Rights. But it is up to the electorate to effectuate this change through education, peaceable activism in media and social discourse in a mass exercise of persuasion, combined with voting power to ensure the right people represent the nation.  

Benjamin Franklin said when asked by a citizen what kind of government he and his fellow Founders had just created in 1787, “A republic, if you can keep it.” He knew that the diversity of interests, prejudices and passions of a new nation amid constantly changing conditions made the continuance of the republic questionable.  But he also recognized that the people’s common values, especially freedom achieved through a brutal war, would help to ensure the longevity of the republic.

Today, we face an inflection point inasmuch as imperial government and its progressive agenda truly threaten our democracy. Democracy is a function of government and the governed.  Over time, adjustments may be necessary on either side of the equation. When the people run afoul, the state intervenes according to the rule of law and its regulatory powers established by their elected representatives and their selected operatives. When the government gets out of hand, the people must summon the mettle to correct the course through their voting power and their freedom to communicate freely, and conduct orderly and lawful protest to preserve their right to self-determination. It is at this juncture we now stand.  

But the institutional checks and balances in the legislatures, the courts and the enforcement apparatus seem to have been largely compromised through a blanket wokeness and excess conformity with the Left’s agenda.  It is up to the people to break the logjam. As Franklin believed, a republic is a good form of government - if we can keep it.  It is up to us.  2/20/23

• RIP GINA LOLLOBRIGIDA

Film star and sex bomb, Gina Lollobrigida, just died at 95.  A mammary queen, her semi-nude poster graced my wall in the late 1950s, along with those of Marilyn Monroe, Brigitte Bardot, Jayne Mansfield and Jane Russell.  I’m sure I speak for many of my male contemporaries who would say, “Those ladies made a man of me at an early age.”

F**k you, #MeToo.  1/17/23

Miscellaneous Thoughts Posted to LinkedIn Between October and December 2022 

by William J. Dodwell

• WHAT’S WRONG WITH ELON MUSK?  First, he grossly overpaid for Twitter.  Then he tried to back out of the deal after failing to do due diligence beforehand about well-known false accounts, but legal obstacles overcame him.  On taking over, he properly fired the CEO, CFO and chief legal counsel, and terminated about half of the employees. He released a treasure trove of emails affirming already suspected internal cooperation with government officials to censor conservative content. Of particular note, is the Hunter Biden laptop story, the suppression of which changed the outcome of the 2020 presidential election according to polls.  

Musk announced he will step down when he stabilizes the company.  Then he said he would leave on the basis of a user vote.  He said that Twitter distracted him from running Tesla and SpaceX, even though he knew that from the start. Now he says he will depart when he finds someone “foolish enough” to take his job. 

What’s wrong with his guy?  The line between genius and madness can be thin.  Let’s hope Musk gets his head together to deliver the transformation conservatives have been eagerly expecting in the name of free speech. He must not disappoint.  This could be a huge blow to the Left that reduces similar content restriction in other social media, including LinkedIn.

Next year, Republican-led congressional hearings will examine the government nexus with Big Tech employed as a proxy to skirt First Amendment free speech rights.  This symbiosis has nefarious implications beyond Twitter. It invites scrutiny of a larger government-corporate collaboration aimed at extending the tyrannical reach of the public sector to employees and customers.  At stake are overt and covert government mandates and the freedom-destroying woke agenda.

We need a stable Elon Musk to launch the opening salvo in forging the resistance to the growing usurpation of our Constitutional rights.   12/22/22

• A CHRISTMAS OFFERING. Merry Christmas. Here I have fun on the piano with my arrangement of “Jingle Bells”. https://youtu.be/VhqXsSg4W5Q  Enjoy this as a momentary palliative against the stress from the woeful state of the body politic.  12/19/22

• THE INFLATION TRAJECTORY. Inflation may have peaked, thanks to Fed tightening and the declining M2 money supply that had been extremely high. November inflation was 7.1%, down from a June high of 9.1%. But the question is how low can inflation get and over what time horizon.

Contributing to lower inflation is the continued abatement of supply-chain logjams. In addition, less bank lending amid a sharp recession next year will curtail spending. However, banks will invest more in treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that will suppress bond yields to encourage borrowing/spending, thus counteracting the Fed’s quantitative tightening.

Also bolstering inflation are labor shortages resulting from continued government pandemic accommodations that discourage work. They include extended unemployment benefits, free or subsidized health care, liberal distribution of food stamps, extended child tax credits, and expanded Medicaid largesse.  The resulting low labor participation rate limits production in the economy in the face of still considerable demand. Hence, labor shortages combine with general inflation to force employers to raise wages.

Trillions of dollars of new government spending has yet to permeate the economy. As it does, it will create inflationary pressures. So might the coming details of the omnibus bill just forged by Congress to avert a government shutdown in the absence of a fiscal 2023 budget.

So, inflation has come down but incremental disinflation will be harder to achieve.  In fact, the Fed’s original 2% target seems chimerical. The Fed ought not to relent on rate hikes.  And, if only Biden would lift restrictions on oil and gas development, half the problem would disappear.  Alas, that is not going to happen until a Republican is in the White House. Perhaps the most effective inflation antidote would be a hard dose of recession. 12/15/22

• GROWING REPUBLICAN TRUMP BASHING.  Republican and conservative media increasingly abandon their former standard-bearer as his successful presidency recedes from memory. This, despite its stark contrast to the utter travesties of the current administration. In fact, Donald Trump seems suddenly to have become anathema in new quarters of his party.

Orchestrated attack

Media mogul, Rupert Murdock, recently commanded all the writers and broadcasters employed by his properties, including the conservative Wall Street Journal, New York Post, and Fox News, to denigrate Trump’s presidential prospects for 2024.  On cue, they dutifully acted in lock step concocting any kind of Trump-bashing they could muster. So much for journalistic integrity and independence.  Indeed, it was blatant prostitution. (To be fair, they would have been fired if they did not comply.)

The most common theme among Trump’s new critics concerns his candidate endorsements in the 2022 midterm elections.  They say too many of his picks disappointed in the general election because they were too radical, according to exit polls. Republican operatives believe certain other candidates could have won, especially given Biden’s atrocious performance.  In fact, 91% of Trump’s 254 endorsements won their races, but critics point out his record was lackluster in competitive contests. Let’s examine this theory.

The midterm elections

The election results, while below expectations, were hardly a mass repudiation of Trump inasmuch as Republicans retook control of the House and missed a Senate majority by a whisker.  Some losses in key races were quite narrow.  Kari Lake’s tentative defeat for AZ governor and Adam Laxalt’s NV senate loss were by less than 1%.  Herschel Walker lost the GA senate race by less than 1% with a runoff scheduled for December 6th. A libertarian spoiler likely siphoned his 2% from Walker’s tally denying him a victory in the first round.

Yes, there were some disasters.  Douglas Mastriano, a rock-ribbed conservative endorsed by Trump, lost the PA governor race by 15 points. Go figure. Maybe he was too macho for today’s feminized populace.

Exit polls indicating candidates were too radical derived from small samples. Kari Lake is still challenging her loss. Testimony of witnesses and circumstantial evidence in Arizona suggest highly suspect events. To wit: The printing capability of the pre-tested voting machines increasingly failed over the course of the day, breaking down at a 70% rate at the peak. Poll workers told voters affected to deposit their ballots in an open box.  Many, not trusting that procedure, went home disenfranchised. This problem also had to have influenced the Blake Masters senate race on the same ballot, although his five-point shortfall was considerably greater than Lake’s.  

Many suspect a significant sympathy vote gave stroke victim, John Fetterman, a senate victory in PA.  Seriously, how could such an ultra-leftist win in light of an abysmally poor campaign performance in a relatively conservative state, excepting Pittsburgh and Philadelphia?  Critics say his Republican opponent, Mehmet Oz, as a physician, was an “elitist” who did not mesh with the largely working class electorate. But Donald Trump is a multibillionaire who has done pretty well with that demographic.  Some say Oz did not campaign well.  How so?  His articulate comprehensive presentations were impressive, especially in contrast to Fetterman’s unintelligible deliveries.  Was Oz’s ethnicity a factor? 

In any case, is a vote against a Republican in the midterm elections necessarily a referendum on Trump in 2024? Trump’s Republican detractors are pushing that narrative.  But his presence as a presidential candidate on the ballot is much more powerful than as an attempted king maker in an off year election when the memory of his successes are out of focus for many. President Clinton won reelection in 1996 after a record repudiation of House Democrats in the 1994 midterms.  So did President Obama in 2012 in the wake of the equally disastrous 2010 house cleaning. (Pun intended.)

Trump supporters point to the Democrats’ huge campaign funding advantage in the midterm elections. Exacerbating this problem was GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s injudicious allocation of monies to candidates helpful to him personally at the expense of some good conservatives. How much did Democrat candidates benefit from government Covid stimulus funds allegedly re-routed from the teachers’ unions and state and local entities to the Democratic National Committee?

Why the mutiny?

Why are so many Republicans and conservatives suddenly forsaking Trump?  Initially, the coordinated assaults aimed at deterring him from running again in order to make room for fresher candidates. But he represents their values and proved it as president.  He stands for upholding the Constitution, border security, the rule of law, etc., and incorporated these ideals in his policies.  But Trump’s critics ignore his stellar presidential achievements in their quest to block his return.   

On the other hand, many express fatigue from his combative personality and attendant disorder.  How does civility supersede his successful presidential record largely predicated on that style?  A milquetoast president likely would not have accomplished what Trump did. Trump’s Republican opponents fear he would lose in 2024 and bring down other Republicans in the process. Thus, they call for new candidates.  At the same time, Democrats think Trump could win.  So, he gets blasted from both sides.

Is the “election denier” label scaring people off?

Some Republicans think support for Trump will brand them a dreaded 2020 “election denier” in a guilt-by-association connection, given Trump’s persistent claim that election was illegitimate. The moniker is becoming a scarlet letter for candidates.  Such are the politics of intimidation fostered by Democrats, government and media today – and the diffidence of Republicans.

Cutting through the anti-Trump hype

What is the true electoral appetite for Trump’s recently announced 2024 run?  The 2016 novelty has diminished.  Trump fatigue is a factor.  His age is a minus. But his conservatism remains, underscored by his presidential successes that distinguish him from any opponent.  That record should override his negatives for principled Republicans, and even some Democrats.  And, it highlights the outrageous policies of the Biden administration as to accentuate Democratic vulnerability. Contrary to Republican media hype, the 2022 midterm disappointments were not the Trump referendum many party powers-that-be claim.   

Deep bench for the GOP

The GOP anti-Trump faction believes there are younger more palatable presidential candidates lacking Trump’s baggage that they believe could doom him in the 2024 election.  Alternatives include conservatives Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, notably, as well as former Trump Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton.  They are great candidates, but Republicans should save one of them for two terms following another Trump stint.  That would make potentially three successive terms, or more, to restore and entrench the conservative agenda.

Unfortunately, a constant Republican anti-Trump drumbeat for two more years could erode his support regardless of the merits and doom his candidacy.  11/29/22

• THE COMPREHENSIVE CONSERVATIVE CELEBRATES 10 YEARS OF TRUTH TELLING. It has been a full decade of unvarnished conservative truth from yours truly bucking the tide amid mass media lies, propaganda and censorship, institutional wokeness and corruption, government tyranny, and cultural decay - all in the face of public gullibility, apathy and ignorance.

Throughout, I present an antidote of unspeakable political realities and traditional aesthetics, as well as well-informed commentary on finance and the economy grounded in 40 years of Wall Street experience.  Check out my writings at https://www.williamjdodwell.com/archives

(If a link fails to deliver a selected title, click again. The digital path sometimes needs prompting.)

And while you’re at it, stop by Bill’s Music Lounge and relax to my piano renditions of jazz and popular classics at  https://www.williamjdodwell.com/my-piano-recordings-bills-music-lounge   11/28/22

• IS DEMOCRAT ELECTION FRAUD IN THE OFFING TOMORROW?  With so many major races well within the margin of error in the latest polls, corrupt Democrat operatives are undoubtedly ready to spring into action tomorrow.  The fraudulent November 2020 presidential election set the template and a firm precedent for ongoing venality. Will the Democrat Party succeed again?

The following close races are of particular interest as they involve especially dangerous radical Democrats.

-          Kathy Hochul (D) vs. Lee Zeldin (R) for NY Governor

-          John Fetterman (D) vs. Mehmet Oz (R) for PA U.S. Senate

-          Mark Kelly (D) vs. Blake Masters (R) for AZ U.S. Senate

-          Rafael Warner (D) vs. Herschel Walker (R) for GA U.S. Senate

-          Mandela Barnes (D) vs. Ron Johnson (R) for WI U.S. Senate

-          Gretchen Whitmer (D) vs. Tudor Dixon (R) for MI Governor

Despite repeated media reports, including from conservative outlets, outcome-changing irregularities in the 2020 election were never seriously reviewed for adjudication, notwithstanding copious evidence that compels judicial intervention.  No judge has had the courage to pursue it out of fear for his reputation, his safety and even his life. Very few naysayers speak out because they fear reprisals and media vilification that would destroy their careers. Questioning that election continues to be verboten in all quarters. Kari Lake, Republican candidate for Governor of Arizona, is a stark exception.  I love that gal!

There were other suspicious election results since November 2020.  Consider the two runoff Senate races in Georgia in January 2021.  In both cases, the advantage suddenly dropped to within 1% after long sizable Republican leads. The result produced two leftist senators in Rafael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.

Last year, Republican Jack Ciattarelli led New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy until the very end when probable ballot stuffing in heavily Democrat Newark in the dead of night protected the incumbent’s reelection.

Some state courts and legislatures have promulgated changes to preclude certain election violations. But will they be enforced?  Plenty of latitude still exists with respect to the dating of ballots and signature verification. One jurisdiction in Pennsylvania announced that it will not comply with a recent court ruling about ballot dating. In 2020, existing laws sometimes were ignored.  For example, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere the executive branch usurped the role of the legislature to change statutes. And who can forget the video of thugs blocking entrance to poll inspectors?

I offer this preemptive alert as a warning that, in the aftermath of November 2020, election integrity cannot necessarily be expected anymore. The determination of Democrats to cheat and the acquiescence of Republicans invite its demise. Where margins are razor thin, do not be surprised if strange things happen to the detriment of Republicans.  This reality is a true threat to democracy.  11/7/22

• RIP JERRY LEE LEWIS.  Rock-a-billy, rhythm and blues singer/pianist, Jerry Lee Lewis, aka “The Killer”, died last week at 87. In tribute, here’s my rendition of his signature song, “Great Balls Of Fire”. (Video embedded.)

The song topped the charts in 1958 but it is currently featured in the movie, “Top Gun: Maverick” starring Tom Cruise bringing it to new generations. 10/31/22

• GROUP THINK RE UK FINANCIAL JOLT HAS IT WRONG.

Wrongheadedness

Most reporting on the quasi financial panic in the UK cites former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s tax cut policy as the culprit.  It was not, at least not primarily.  Rather, it was a derivative hedge strategy of pension funds that went awry in reaction to rising interest rates. The development triggered collateral calls that forced a massive sale of government bonds which created capital losses in investment portfolios writ large. Sadly, this wrong-headedness about Truss’s tax cuts among investors, the public and even the Conservative Party has resulted in Ms. Truss’s resignation.   

The wayward derivative strategy

Chronically low interest rates caused the present discounted value of future pension liabilities to increase on balance sheets. At the same time those low rates significantly restricted returns on pension assets, thus producing outsize funding deficits. This led to more required pension contributions to narrow the funding gap that seriously strained operations, even to the point of bankruptcy.

The derivative strategy was designed to overcome this problem and was predicated on the assumption that low rates would continue for a long time. (Modern Monetary Theory at work.)  When rates rose precipitously to combat inflation, the protection dissolved prompting collateral calls involving huge sales of government bonds. The ensuing portfolio losses affected bonds, stocks and the pound. The Bank of England has intervened temporarily to purchase bonds to stabilize the markets.   

Tax cuts are good

Ms. Truss announced her proposed tax cut to stimulate the economy. Unfortunately, everyone blamed the market havoc on it instead of the pension problem, of which few seemed to be aware. The group think says the tax cut would exacerbate the budget deficit, thus worsening inflation and devaluing the pound, while adding to the excessive debt. But the tax cut, coupled with deregulation, is eminently sound as a supply-side initiative to incentivize production. This capital investment also would contribute to growth which would curb inflation, now 10.1% year-over-year in the UK.

Sadly, Ms. Truss limited the benefit of her tax cut by also proposing government subsidized caps on energy prices and more spending.  On this, the reaction of the masses is justified as that policy would worsen inflation and hamper growth.  But, absent the pension derivative strategy, that concern would not have triggered the financial bedlam that occurred.

Deja' vu

This event is reminiscent of the U.S. derivatives debacle in 1994. The Fed raised interest rates in quick succession after years of near rock-bottom levels precipitating a mass failure of derivative strategies. Among the casualties were a PaineWebber money fund that “broke the buck” and the bankruptcy of Orange County, CA. This is not an indictment of derivatives, but they can be disastrous in the face of unexpected events. 10/20/22

• GET THAT ESG CRAP OUT OF MY PORTFOLIO

The backlash against ESG

Surprisingly, disaffection with the ESG craze is mounting fast.  I expected the mass disillusionment to last much longer.  I refer to the political left prevailing on asset managers and brainwashing individuals into investing trillions of dollars according to environmental, social and governance criteria. If only the climate change canard met such resistance early on, the country would not be facing the ludicrous Green New Deal movement that promises to wreck the economy. Somehow, people’s heads clear when politics intersects with their money.

Consider the following sampling of headlines concerning ESG protestations:

-          ESG Can’t Square With Fiduciary Duty

-          Arizona Defends Retirees Against ESG

-          Climate Change Brings a Flood of Hyperbole

-          Biden’s ESG Tax on Your Retirement Fun

-          End the Fed’s Mission Creep

-          Texas Blacklists Firms For Alleged Energy Bans

The hidden agenda

The ESG movement aims to incorporate climate change, diversity, equity, LGBTQ and a range of stakeholder interests into corporate policies and culture. It is a Marxist ruse to co-opt the business sector as the Left is doing in the military, and has done in academia, media, Big Tech, and entertainment. The ultimate goal is to tear down our institutions as a prelude to creating a new socialist order.  Besides, the typically lower returns of ESG investments conflict with the fiduciary obligation of money managers to pursue maximum returns for clients. And investors are speaking out.

Of course, there is a profit motive too.  Asset-management firms charge outsize fees for ESG designated funds that many starry-eyed investors or their surrogates seek. These investments have been under public and regulatory scrutiny as to whether they really represent what they claim. Furthermore, ESG measurement methodologies are inconsistent and dubious. The room for fraud is boundless.

Larry Fink and BlackRock

The poster-boy for this nefarious political hijacking is Larry Fink, founder and CEO of BlackRock, the largest asset-management firm in the world with some $9 trillion under management and advisory.  He has pressured companies to go woke by suggesting that his firm would steer client funds away from their stocks if they do not cooperate. In particular, he strives to defund oil and gas companies in the effort to curtail the production and consumption of fossil fuels and eventually terminate that industry. In a panel discussion on video Fink said that voluntary compliance with ESG is not enough and that investors have to be “forced” to embrace the woke through his coercion. 

Fink also uses BlackRock’s heavily weighted proxy share voting power to incorporate ESG in the corporate actions of thousands of investee companies. Fink even gets other money management firms to do likewise through interlocking boardships and equity stakes.   

Pressure on corporations is also coming from the Fed and the SEC as they contemplate cumbersome ESG disclosure requirements beyond their historical mandates.  In addition, the NASD requires the boards of member firms to meet prescribed diversity standards. Furthermore, some private-equity investors are linking portfolio managers’ compensation to the ESG compliance of investee companies. Credit rating agencies now incorporate ESG factors in their ratings in the form of a credit impact score.

The bogus climate change premise

Concerns about climate change constitute the greatest impetus of the ESG movement.  The issue is commonly expressed through the apocalyptic and bastardized term, “sustainability”, supposedly referring to the sustenance of the planet whose advocates believe is under serious threat from carbon emissions.

Climate change naysayers, called “deniers” by the Left, do not believe man-made agents, such as CO2, cause climate change, at least not more than an inconsequential infinitesimal degree.  Nor do they believe man can change climate, which has morphed naturally for ions, sometimes catastrophically.  The best one can do is prepare for the natural effects of extreme weather and anticipated calamities, such as hurricanes and earthquakes.

Thus, the effort to minimize carbon emissions by eliminating fossil fuels is a fool’s errand, especially considering the enormous economic and social costs.  Many climate scientists agree but mainstream media suppress them, or they remain silent for fear of losing their research funding or their jobs.

The constant faux media alarm is just so much propaganda. The environmental movement is ultimately about redistributing global wealth through taxation, fines and legal settlements in a massive one-world socialist transformation. In fact, the earth is not fragile.  It has withstood natural shocks and disasters forever, certainly anything man could throw at it.   

Now the Federal Reserve requires banks to disclose climate change threats to the financial system, such as systemic loan defaults resulting from potential regulatory sanctions, carbon transition risk, lawsuits and disabling physical damage incurred by borrowers.

ESG exposed

Of late, Fink of BlackRock has been in the hot seat as pension fund managers, corporate Treasurers and state AGs protest ESG tactics. In reaction, Fink recants, saying his fiduciary duty to clients is sacrosanct. But he got caught with his pants down and now he is backpedaling.  Increasingly, clients are not buying his equivocations. Recently, a few institutional investors withdrew over $1 billion of holdings. Many more ought to follow suit.

ESG investors may indulge their climate change and social justice fantasies as desired but they should know whether money managers really direct their investments to those purposes.  Even so, those investors should realize they are empowering authoritarian government and fostering the emergence of a new socialist order. 

To be sure, ESG investing is still expanding more than contracting. But increasingly, the public is getting wise to the environmental charade, especially as it impacts their pocketbook. Resistance is becoming more acute in view of inflation arising in part from unnecessary government restrictions on fossil fuels and nuclear production while alternative energy sources still prove unreliable.

Social and governance initiatives undermine the meritocratic model that built the nation, and create division and resentment at the expense of productivity. Wokeness spawns tyranny that stifles growth and prosperity. ESG investing is part of the problem. 10/17/22

• BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE:  AN OASIS AMID NATIONAL TURMOIL. Escape the angst. Return to normal times through songs of yesteryear.

https://www.williamjdodwell.com/my-piano-recordings-bills-music-lounge  10/10/22

• ECONOMIC BACKLASH IN THE UK.  Prime Minister Liz Truss’ tax cut proposal faced massive repudiation by investors, media, and even her Conservative Party.  Intended to stimulate economic growth to mitigate inflation, everyone feared the unfunded measure would widen the deficit, weaken the pound, and thus exacerbate inflation.  Consequently, bond prices tumbled, spiking interest rates that threaten the economy. Falling pension asset values and rising mortgage rates were of particular concern.    In short order, the Bank Of England purchased bonds to counteract the impact.  Finally, Truss capitulated and rescinded a cut in the top tax rate that benefits the wealthy. 

In my last post, I proposed tax cuts and deregulation to help arrest inflation in the U.S. This is because they promote supply-side capital investment that counterbalances excess demand, curbed by aggressive interest-rate hikes and rising bond yields, to effect an equilibrium that decreases inflation. 

But Truss’ tax cut is different. It accompanies a much more impactful government spending proposal, including universal healthcare and subsidies to cap energy costs, that works at cross purposes to the tax cut.  In addition, there was no deregulation proposed that also would encourage productive investment. 

What’s more, the UK operates in a more difficult geopolitical setting than the U.S.  For example, inflation is higher inasmuch as the country is more directly affected by energy and food shortages stemming from the war in Ukraine and the predations of Vladimir Putin. Policies that raise interest rates to protect a falling pound and avoid import inflation spur a currency war throughout interconnected Europe and beyond.

This is because other countries are forced to raise interest rates too in order to compete for capital and prevent currency devaluation and further inflation. Rate hikes can be more damaging to some economies than others. Furthermore, socialism is more entrenched in the UK than in the U.S., constituting greater resistance to government spending restraint that is part of an anti-inflation formula.

The tax cut is an important supply-side fiscal tool for fighting inflation if combined with deregulation and government spending limits. Policymakers should not dismiss it because of its outright rejection in the UK.  International policy dynamics coupled with seemingly more intense political and psychological forces on financial markets make this solution more difficult to employ in the UK.  10/5/22

Miscellaneous Thoughts Posted to LinkedIn Between July and Sept. 2022 

• FIGHTING INFLATION REQUIRES MORE THAN JUST REDUCING DEMAND. Inflation is a function of both excess demand and supply shortage.  But most commentary about fighting inflation focuses only on the demand side of the equation.  Some of these advocates even call for tax hikes to slow demand in accompaniment with the Fed’s monetary tightening.  To that end, even the steep fall in financial asset valuations is salutary, inasmuch as the reverse wealth-effect certainly prompts demand curtailment. 

President Biden believes more government spending, especially through subsidies for energy and healthcare, will lower prices and thus inflation. This is too absurd to discuss. Trillions of dollars of wasteful federal spending under the guise of Covid relief was a principal cause of inflation. 

Inflated financial assets resulted from investors seeking higher returns for over a decade to escape the near-zero money market interest rates and low longer-term rates from quantitative easing (bond purchases) imposed by the Fed.  Reversing that policy tends to redirect new capital away from the financial system back to the real economy for more productive use. As such, a correction in valuations is ultimately healthy, while losses lessen demand inflation.  

But an anti-inflation campaign also requires supply-side stimulation in the form of pro-growth tax cuts and deregulation to foster production to meet the excess demand.  A policy of combined demand curtailment and supply creation restores an equilibrium that resolves inflation. Just slamming the breaks on demand invites a hard landing recession.  The balanced approach is less disruptive and more effective.

Of course, other factors, such as continued supply-chain logjams and labor shortages, hamper production. And continued government spending excess is counterproductive.  But a policy of fiscal stimulation from tax cuts and deregulation in concert with aggressive interest-rate hikes is the best prescription for inflation abatement.  9/28/22

• BEWARE OF THE FINANCIAL SNAKEOIL SALESMAN.

Gold  -  Active investing  -  Annuities

Gold

As inflation rages, gold hucksters flood the airwaves with ads about hedging a loss in purchasing power with presumably appreciating positions in gold. The fact is that for some years now the price of gold has been depreciating, compounding investment losses. The goldbugs also peddle the notion that inflation will eventually devalue the dollar substantially in international markets, further fueling inflation from rising import prices as the exchange rate deteriorates. The fact is that the dollar is the strongest in years, despite high inflation, because other economies fare worse.

Supporting the dollar are higher interest rates than in other countries, and world reserve status by which most commodities are denominated in dollars, thus creating a constant demand for the currency.  In addition, the dollar enjoys perpetual safe haven status as a destination currency around the globe in times of economic and geopolitical strife because of relative stability and growth prospects in the U.S.  Current inflation will not last forever.

Active investing

Passive investing has outperformed active investing for years now. So why get complicated?  In the three years 2019 through 2021, investing in an S&P 500 Index fund produced an average annual return of 24%. During the stock market downturn, a simple move to a money market fund preserves principal while offering a decent yield as interest rates rise.

Three-month Treasuries are currently yielding 3% and will definitely rise in the coming months as the Fed tightens. When stocks surge again as the economy recovers, the investor would move back to the index fund for a nice ride. The only imponderable, of course, is calling the top and bottom in stocks.  A few percentage points off, up or down, would not spoil the party for the buy and hold investor.  Results would likely outperform the comparative track record of active investors, especially considering the drag from the growing presence of politicized ESG portfolio selections.

Annuities

Why would one invest in an annuity?  An annuity is a contract whereby the investor surrenders his original investment in exchange for a lifelong income stream.  The income may be fixed or variable but the rate of return is always nominal, and may be orders of magnitude below market when stock prices or cash yields are ascendant. If the investor dies prematurely, the total return is practically nil and “income for life” amounts to little.

Alternatively, one could invest in other assets at potentially much better returns and keep the original investment.  Market losses may occur, but that is better than relinquishing the corpus. Losses can be recovered, and the asset is available for special purposes if needed. And, it may be passed on to heirs, unlike an annuity. 9/19/22

• THE CRITICAL IMPORTANCE OF THE NOVEMBER ELECTION

It has never been this bad: Rampant crime fostered by lawless Democrat mayors and DAs.  Destructive inflation from trillions of dollars of unneeded government spending. Deliberate border chaos to cultivate millions of future Democrat voters. Prohibitions against oil and gas development that have surrendered our energy independence.  A weaponized FBI that targets Trump supporters and those who question the 2020 election.

Make no mistake, today’s radical Democrat Party, aided and abetted by mainstream media, is dedicated to destroying the nation in order to rebuild it as a new socialist state, nullifying our founding principles promulgated in the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution.  This is evident in the deterioration of our institutions in recent years as they countenance the dismantling of law enforcement, open borders, and the “woke” agenda.

The Left, embodied by the Democrat Party, is hellbent on dividing and conquering, even by precipitating a civil war. As such, for starters, Americans must defeat Democrats in November at all levels in a stark repudiation of the scourge they have wrought under President Biden. Thereafter, patriots must also support ongoing primary challenges to RINO republicans to ensure effective resistance. President Trump is unique among former presidents in doing this.

Inflation

Several trillion dollars of profligate spending under Biden, mostly passed with only Democratic support, has unleashed entrenched inflation, the highest in forty years, that could lead to protracted recession. The effect is to substantially raise costs and erode income and savings for everyone. The spending was largely unnecessary, even for Covid relief, as much of that money is still unspent. Other aid continues despite the end of the pandemic, including Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, food stamps, child tax credits, as well as extra Medicare and Medicaid payments.

Most of the largesse goes to Democratic special interests, notably the climate change lobby and the teachers unions, all of which rebate handsome campaign contributions and provide lucrative post-government jobs. Democrats want even more spending, ludicrously claiming it combats inflation. The real reason is to expand government and make it an irresistible benefactor in exchange for blanket public obeisance under Democratic control.

Law enforcement 

Democrat mayors, George Soros funded district attorneys, and woke judges ignore the rule of law.  They defund and incapacitate the police, decriminalize serious behaviors, adopt no-bail and prisoner release programs, and render light sentences or outright release for offenders with long arrest records. As a result, crime has skyrocketed throughout the country terrorizing the citizenry. Marauding savages attack people in the streets and subways like never before. They highjack cars and loot businesses with impunity. Office workers and tourists stay away out of fear, at tremendous cost to local businesses. We face a public safety crisis.

Open borders 

The Biden administration has pursued a de facto open borders policy flouting existing immigration laws while boldly lying to Congress and the people that the border is secure. The Democrats support this outrage because it sets the stage for millions of new Democratic voters who could assure permanent Democrat power through eventual amnesty.

Democrat leaders are not deterred by the megatons of drugs smuggled over the border, notably the highly lethal fentanyl. They killed over 100,000 lives from overdoses last year devastating families and entire communities. Nor do they care about undermining national security, or importing violent criminals and accommodating human traffickers who infect the interior. Biden even disperses illegal aliens throughout the country where they will strain resources and squelch the quality of life.  Border agents report that Biden has turned over control of the border to the drug cartels!  Remember, the Democrats want to destroy America.

The woke agenda 

The new Democrat Party creates and capitalizes on racial and other political identities to divide and conquer America.  Absurdly, Biden, VP Harris and AG Garland have proclaimed that white supremacist violence poses the greatest threat to America. (Of course, black crime is never mentioned.) Critical race theory and other woke indoctrination take precedence over traditional academics in the schools.  Government characterizes parents protesting this at school board meetings as terrorists. “Equity” replaces meritocratic equal opportunity for blacks where government wealth redistribution, legislation and regulation assure desired quality of life outcomes. Reparations are brewing.

Transgenderism, the latest extension of the LGBT juggernaut, has become the holy grail of protected classes to the point of denying fundamental distinctions between men and women, or any distinction at all. Government, big business, academia and even the military fascistically impose new rules regarding preferred pronouns and language, such as, “birthing person”. We must stop this tyranny.

Not your father’s Democrat Party 

According to the new Democrat Party model, moderates need not apply. Indeed, they have no prospects in the party.  Hence, many former moderates have abandoned principle and cut far left.  Nowhere is this more evident than in President Biden who used to be a law and order, as well as border security, hawk. But might he now be beholden to the Left because it has the receipts regarding his decades-long family arrangements with China, Ukraine and elsewhere?  A Republican controlled congress will investigate.

The ballot box is the most effective lever for defeating the nefarious Left. We must not squander the opportunity. Vote Democrats out in November and forever to vanquish the assault on the nation and restore individual freedom and continued prosperity. Spread the word.  9/15/22

• THE VACCINE HYPE RESUMES.  The CDC just announced its approval of the updated Covid booster adjusted to combat the original virus and its variants. The vaccine was tested on only eight mice and no humans but some experts say pre-existing knowledge incorporated in the trials permits this limited study. Others are skeptical.

So get ready for the hype again, to include President Biden’s incessant mantra, “Get vaccinated.”  Is another booster needed?  Is it safe? 

The majority of the population has contracted Covid by now and is therefore protected by natural immunity which is provably superior to the vaccine. The virus will always be with us like the flu. So what!

Covid variants have been successively less severe even to the equivalent of a cold. As such, mere infection is innocuous, except for possibly the elderly and immuno-suppressed.

The Covid vaccine is still experimental. Adverse long-term effects are unknown. However, there have been suppressed reports of tens of thousands of serious afflictions and deaths, orders of magnitude more than other vaccines, including that for the flu. God knows what the inoculated face in the years to come, especially children, all of whom honest scientists say are at no risk to the virus.

Why the hype?  Politics and money.  The Democrat push for the next booster will be about sales, like before. Follow the money: Democrat government subsidies to pharmaceutical firms, and mandates to maximize demand; revenue kickbacks to the Democrat National Committee (DNC), to scaremongers, and other operatives who facilitate the ruse.  And the gravy train will continue indefinitely as the public acquiesces to ongoing booster updates broadly promoted by Democrat government and its allies but needed only by a limited vulnerable population.

Covid has never been the threat that government and media have portrayed, and we now know that mandated mitigation protocols are inherently ineffective.  Furthermore, the one million recorded U.S. deaths are exaggerated by the fact that 94% of them involved four or more co-morbidities.  In addition, many deaths have been fraudulently misclassified so that hospitals can collect a $5,000 government stipend for each. Doctors and nurses have reported immense pressure on them to categorize deaths falsely. Where are the mass media on this?  It is called corruption.

It is incumbent on the truly vulnerable, i.e., the elderly and immune-suppressed, to self-quarantine as they deem necessary. The general population should not be encumbered.

Fortunately, people are finally getting wise to Covid reality as many balk at getting the latest vaccine. 9/2/22

• NAVIGATING TRUTH AMID LEFTIST PROPAGANDA.  The Covid pandemic is particularly instructive in demonstrating the power of leftist propaganda over truth. Political disputes derive from different subjective world-views and may be speculative. But Covid mistruths fly in the face of objective reality in hard science and thus can be conclusively disproved.  The Democrat Party and mainstream media have propagated those fallacies concerning the disease’s threat, transmissibility and prevention. At the same time, they suppress genuine science resulting in a misinformed and hysterical public.

One can establish Covid truth easily through a simple Google search that contrasts politically motivated mass media positions against pronouncements of eminent scientists, such as Scott Atlas, Martin Kulldorff, Jay Bhattacharya, and Robert Malone. Their empirical knowledge founded on scientific method belies media representations about the severity of the virus, the significance of mere infection, the populations at risk, and the effectiveness of contact tracing and mitigation protocols. Scientific evidence also proves the primacy of natural immunity, the effectiveness of certain treatments denied the public, and the limitations of vaccination, while narrowly circumscribing the elderly as most vulnerable.

Yet the propagandists prevail, helping governments control the citizenry through scare mongering and mandates. Crying wolf compels compliance and predisposes the public toward further acquiescence as needed. Denying science also leads to trillions of dollars of government spending under the guise of Covid relief, most of which is actually directed to left-wing special interests. The Left also enrich themselves in concert with pharmaceutical firms by pushing vaccine sales, even on children who are at zero risk. Indeed, only Democrat governors and operatives imposed severe Covid austerity to achieve those ends. Thus, they have every incentive to ignore science. Who says partisan politics is not involved?

Why is the public so duped about Covid? Mainly because mainstream media suppress contrarian scientists. Some are skeptical of lay criticism, suspecting intractable political bias with an unwillingness to consider independent sources of information. But a firm benchmark for Covid truth exists in objective science.  In addition, many are gullible and susceptible to the scare tactics. Consider the bozos still wearing masks even though the partisan CDC has relaxed restrictions.  

Furthermore, many medical professionals who only concentrate on their specialties also are misinformed about Covid, and convey that ignorance to their patients. Amid a dwindling number of private medical practices, some professionals who know better are forced to go along with their corporate superiors who are themselves under pressure to pedal Covid politics.      

Follow the science for Covid truth.  Google the aforementioned scientists.  8/15/22  

• A HOT NIGHT AND A REASSESSMENT OF THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS. The heat wave is getting to me.  Last night I dreamt I was in bed with television business anchor, Maria Bartiromo, discussing the economy.  I woke up after she pushed me to the floor when I disagreed with her solution for inflation.  Or, was it my performance?  I very much want to resume that dream to make amends. I’ll change the topic to the return of our mutually preferred 2024 presidential candidate and create an atmosphere of coital bliss. 

This experience with Ms. Bartiromo reminds me of her early days on Wall Street vis a vis the raucous culture there and how the two elements might have affected the Great Financial Crisis.

Ms. Bartiromo, dubbed the “money honey” in the 1990s, aroused Wall Street horndogs daily through her reports from the New York Stock Exchange. One might say she was instrumental in the beginnings of the subprime mortgage debacle. She distracted smitten analysts from ensuring the quality of mortgages they packaged into securities as they mentally undressed her while glued to the monitor watching her. Consequently, toxic waste got through undetected to explode in portfolios around the world.  Hell, she has me dreaming about her 25 years later.

Later, at the peak of subprime mania, those analysts and executives were hung over from all-nighters at strip clubs and other libidinous activities fueled by tons of money made from the sheer volume of MBS transactions. 

Did the SEC know about the role of debauchery and sobriety-challenged bankers in credit assessments that brought the economy to the brink?  Sure. Those guys were slipping fifty-dollar bills in g-strings too. So were the rating analysts.   

Congressional hearings anyone?

Ok, I said the heat is getting to me.  7/26/22    

• INFLATION ANGST GROWS.  We have heard apologias from the “transitory” inflation camp including Powell, Yellen and Krugman. They did not believe the exorbitant monetary and fiscal stimulus aimed at mitigating the effects of the pandemic would produce the price instability that followed. They thought the supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages would normalize fairly quickly to counterbalance the post-lockdown surge in demand. Alas, they did not.

Modern Monetary Theory has become the new credo of the left. Between the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic, inflation remained under 2% for more than a decade, despite massive monetary stimulus by the Fed. Therefore, liberals declared justification for the unlimited printing of money to finance several trillion dollars of pandemic-era government spending without inflationary concerns.

However, this time it is different. The post-GFC stimulus inflated only financial assets as investors sought higher returns to escape low yielding instruments. But the pandemic monetary and fiscal stimulus aimed directly at consumers and businesses drove prices up in the real economy (goods and services) as it spurred demand. 

With the higher interest rates attendant to inflation, stock prices have fallen as they become less competitive with bond yields. Equity valuations probably will fall further as earnings suffer in a recession environment.

Given June year-over-year inflation at 9.1%, the problem seems quite entrenched. The corresponding 11.5% producer price index suggests more inflation is coming. What’s more, the Fed’s current benchmark interest rate of 1.75% is negative in real terms, way below the inflation rate, but significantly higher than Europe and Japan. These higher U.S. interest rates therefore attract foreign investors, creating dollar strength that tempers import inflation.

The huge gap between interest rates and inflation calls for aggressive rate hikes like Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s in the early1980s that would likely trigger recession. Powell has expressed a willingness to throttle economic growth to arrest inflation. But how far would he go? Historically, the Fed has not demonstrated the courage to risk serious recessions. Immediately before Volcker, the Fed tolerated 9% inflation for eight years!  At this point, Powell should pull a Volcker but it is unlikely he has the stomach for it.

However, there are some signs of relief. Supply-chain logjams and labor shortages appear to be easing. Commodity futures are falling in anticipation of recession, causing a recent retreat in gasoline prices. Micro chip shortages are diminishing. As such, Biden’s proposed $250 billion of subsidies to semiconductor firms are unnecessary and ill advised. 

As more businesses anticipate recession, layoffs loom. Wall Street and the auto industry have already announced employment cuts, and unemployment claims have been rising. The sooner the Fed administers the distasteful medicine, the quicker the cure. 7/25/22 

Miscellaneous Thoughts Posted to Linked In Between April and June 2022

• CREEPING REPARATIONS: BIDEN’S AFFORDABLE HOUSING POLICY. Traditional affirmative action aimed at providing equal opportunity for minorities against discrimination but within meritocratic principles is old hat.  Results are not good enough for today’s egalitarian far-Left because too many blacks still fall below normal standards of living.  Thus, progressives now demand a new affirmative action called “equity” through government-mandated accommodations that create equal social outcomes, irrespective of merit.

A glaring example of this “equity” is cited in a 6/14/22 Wall Street Journal editorial headlined, “Fannie Mae’s New Racial Bias”.  The piece decries the Biden Administration’s plan to liberalize affordable housing concessions for BLACKS ONLY through the operations of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  To make the black home ownership rate equal, the program relaxes standards that apply to the mortgages the GSEs purchase from lenders and package into mortgage-backed securities they market to investors.

New accommodations for black mortgage applicants include: 1) Reduced down payments; 2) Reduced penalties for lower credit scores; 3) Subsidized closing costs; 4) Foreclosure avoidance assistance for unexpected home expenses, repairs, and disruptions to income.  Add to this boondoggle an inevitable further lowering of underwriting criteria later on in a potential reenactment of the subprime mortgage debacle. 

Of course, taxpayers bear the cost of this largesse.  Lower profit margins and added defaults will impair Fannie and Freddie capital adequacy and solvency, especially given guaranteed payments to their Agency MBS investors. Pressure for tax increases and additional federal borrowing at higher costs will result to right the shortfall. 

To be sure, this program will expand over time like all others.  Could it ultimately lead to yet another loan forgiveness program, like student loans, but as a form of stealth reparations?  Is that the goal?  This development is another indication that former Obama operatives are running the show as they exploit the president’s feebleness. 

If mortgage forgiveness for blacks becomes a reality, consider the consequences of widely divergent social classes clashing in traditional bedroom communities on a large scale. Imagine the resentment of those who worked throughout their lives to qualify themselves personally, professionally and financially to own their homes in a safe environment for their families.  Yes, many of the new subsidized entrants would assimilate well.  But too many would not.  Race relations will suffer. 

Historically, this reverse-gentrification occurred in discrete neighborhoods and led to “white flight”.  But the Biden program is systemic and authoritarian making relief elusive. The American tradition in home ownership has been to earn one’s keep. That standard ensures a certain economic and social harmony among inhabitants.  “Equity” invites division.  6/16/22

• DOES DEPP vs. HEARD DIMINISH #MeTOO?  The court battle between Johnny Depp and ex-wife Amber Hurd captivated the media for six long weeks.  I cared for neither litigant, as I have no interest in modern Hollywood.  In fact, I have not been in a movie theater since 1989, and my perpetual abstinence from a smart phone precludes any chance of streaming Tinseltown products. 

I only know Depp as some weirdo wearing mascara who played a pirate in a movie.  I learned from newspaper accounts that he is a degenerate sleazeball who squandered his wealth on drugs, alcohol, gambling and lavish spending even beyond his means. Heard, like so many #MeToo malcontents, appears to be the somewhat typical man-hating lesbian capitalizing on the movement.  Her modus operandi was an article she placed in the Washington Post asserting domestic abuse, that Depp claimed was fallacious and defamatory. But the case might be fortuitous.

Does Depp’s court victory mark a setback for the #MeToo emasculation movement?  (See my 2018 anti-#MeToo manifesto at LINK.) For some time the feminist battle cry seems to have retreated somewhat.  News reports that cover alleged indiscretions now initially cite unspecified “inappropriate behavior”. Then many paragraphs later they mention “sexual misconduct”, seemingly downplaying it in recognition of a societal #MeToo and cancel culture fatigue.   

Yet, not long ago the media obsessed over nonsensical sexual harassment accusations against New York Governor Andrew Cuomo that drove him to resign. #MeToo was alive and well. He deserved his ouster for causing the deaths of thousands of Covid patients he moved from hospitals to nursing homes, as well as for his corruption and thuggish behavior. But his alleged sexual harassment was a nothingberger. Nonetheless, all media trumpeted #MeToo-style indignation that the gullible public readily emulated. 

So, did the Depp verdict diminish #MeToo? He was the sympathetic figure throughout the trial as many women rallied for him.  But was that adulation just out of star-struck delusion, or in support of his case in a rejection of yet another exaggerated #MeToo grievance?

The jury deemed Heard’s testimony not sufficiently credible.  Is this a turning point from the absurd, “Always believe the woman.” mantra to a more even-handed assessment of domestic abuse and general sexual misconduct cases? Reportedly, Heard’s prospects are doomed because Hollywood considers her a #MeToo liability risk, who cried wolf before. In addition, Depp’s lawyer has become a star because of the victory. Or, is that just because she is a woman of color?  Are the tables finally turning against #MeToo after destroying so many men and their families unjustifiably?

Consider me skeptical.  This case went to trial where 95% of #MeToo accusers fail.  Swindlers and their corrupt lawyers will continue to seek legal settlements out of court for concocted or inflated charges.  There is still too much money to be made.  6/8/22

• CUTTING THROUGH THE GUN CONTROL TALK.   Once again the media bombard us with one-sided left-wing caterwauling about gun control in the wake of the Uvalde, TX school shooting.  For perspective, I present an article I wrote in 2018 following the Parkland, FL high school massacre entitled, “Gun Control: A Nonpartisan Assessment”. In this 4,000 word piece, I tried to parse both sides of the issue in the hope of possibly chrystalizing some solutions.  We do not have to reinvent the wheel.

Click on https://www.williamjdodwell.com/archives/archives_1/archives_2/archives_3#h.jh1f08mbt6u7 .  

AN IMPORTANT PUBLIC SERVICE NOTICE.  Those who still voluntarily wear masks are psychopaths.  Engage them at your peril.  Sneer at them. It is best to avoid them altogether.  Shun the docile ignorant propaganda dupes who symbolically encourage more imperious government. They probably vote for it as mindlessly as they cower in fear of the virus.  As such, they are a threat to freedom and democracy. 5/26/22

• CLIMATE-CHANGE TRUTH TELLER TELLS IT LIKE IT IS.  Buy this guy a drink.  HSBC executive Stuart Kirk did the unspeakable.  In a presentation to an investor conference he broke ranks with the lock-step monolithic climate-change crowd to air the truth.  He says bank regulators exaggerate the threat of climate risk as they impose growing restrictions to alleviate it. Of course, this admission irks those standing to make money from the reforms. (Read government subsidized alternative energy projects and investment firms touting expensive ESG products.)

According to the Wall Street Journal’s account of Kirk’s talk, “Climate change poses a negligible risk to the global economy and bank balance sheets.”  To quote Kirk: “Unsubstantiated, shrill, partisan, self-serving, apocalyptic warnings are ALWAYS wrong.”

Kirk advocates adapting to the impact of natural climate change rather than trying futilely to mitigate it. This would negate new costly bank reporting requirements, as well as punitive stress tests that reduce capital available to fossil fuel investment. 

For his bravery, CEO Noel Quinn has suspended Kirk pending investigation in a craven capitulation to the left-wing backlash.  This, despite the bank’s approval of his presentation beforehand. Look for Kirk’s firing in the coming weeks. 5/25/22

• VETERANS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR SUITABLE EMPLOYMENT AFTER ALL THESE YEARS.  As Memorial Day rolls around it is fitting I re-publish an article I wrote in 2015 in The Comprehensive Conservative entitled, “The Plight of the Returning Veteran in the Employment Market”, as the issues still apply today.  Indeed, far too many veterans remain unemployed or underemployed, and suicides continue apace.  See https://www.williamjdodwell.com/archives/archives_1#h.fn43fmj5zres for my brutally honest assessment.

As a point of departure, I reference my experience entering the Army after college graduation amid the draft, serving in South Vietnam, and transitioning to the job market 50 years ago.  In the article I point out that much of the longstanding alienation that returning veterans face seems to flow from a change in societal attitudes about the military borne of the switch from compulsory conscription to the all-volunteer service in 1973. This disconnect between military and civilian life has endured ever since, even though troops at war enjoyed popular support at home, unlike during the Vietnam era.

My paper principally discusses the adverse civilian perceptions that often plague the image of veterans and their prospects.  That is a tough nut to crack given the remoteness of the military to most Americans now.  5/23/22

• FOOL OF THE YEAR.  Venture capitalist, John Doerr, is donating $1 billion to Stanford University to establish a school for climate-change and sustainability.  What a brainwashed fool!  What a waste!  Starving children in Africa could benefit immeasurably from this largesse, but he squanders riches on a political artifice.  I never cease to be amazed by the fact that so many smart people are so stupid. To some extent it is all relative.  The gift is only about 9% of Doerr’s net worth according to Forbes.

And there is the question of how the university actually uses the money, especially after the donor dies.  We know government promotes funding for a particular purpose, such as Covid relief, but spends 90% of it on myriad left-wing interests.  Likewise, college endowments receiving gargantuan gifts from philanthropists for a particular use sometimes wind up spending it surreptitiously on other things. In particular, this has happened to donors who insisted their offering be dedicated to conservative ends, such as relevant curricula and resources, only to have to sue the college later for non-compliance. 

This donation will bolster the incomes of some professors and researchers, but mostly help to perpetuate the environmentalist propaganda machine with zero benefit to the public interest.  5/5/22   

• RECESSION IS COMING.  TIME TO TAKE CHIPS OFF THE TABLE.  Fiscal and monetary excess has spurred artificial demand, while labor shortages, regulation, supply-chain logjams, Covid mandates, and Ukraine war disruptions have suppressed production. The inevitable result is an entrenched inflation that has changed the outlook for stocks.   

Stock prices have been volatile for some time as investors successively panicked, recovered, and bought on the dips, while the Fed’s rock-bottom interest rates and quantitative easing kept money market and bond yields uncompetitive.  But now an inflection point emerges in expectation of aggressive monetary tightening, protracted inflation, and the specter of recession.   

Surprising 1.4% first-quarter annualized negative GDP growth is a daunting harbinger. However, temporary anomalous inventory investment and exports supposedly exaggerate it. Moreover, consumer and business spending still remain strong as households flush with savings bolster demand still pent-up from Covid-induced hibernation. In addition, unemployment is low, although labor participation is disappointing and real wages have declined. The dollar has been firm from higher interest and growth rates relative to other countries.  Alas, supply-chain disruptions continue indefinitely, and microchip shortages persist because of inadequate manufacturing capacity. 

While first-quarter earnings have been decent, profits will be under pressure as margins contract from persistent inflation, rising interest rates and an attendant decline in demand. In addition, Biden’s re-regulation and costly restrictions on energy development will discourage business investment. The federal budget deficit will widen further because of the more costly servicing of $30 trillion of debt as interest rates rise.

The ongoing Covid lockdown austerity in China has grave implications for the very many businesses dependent on its markets. What’s more, disorder caused by the war in Ukraine, particularly energy and food shortages, augur trouble.  A stagflation scenario is not chimerical.  

On balance, conditions do not bode well for equities, which already have corrected substantially this year. Tech stocks in particular have been vulnerable as valuations adjust for their more distant future earnings streams subject to greater discounting in a rising interest-rate environment.  This has produced a bear market for the tech-dominated Nasdaq index.  P/E multiples are falling across the board, probably to more reasonable levels.

Liquidity from profligate government spending and fiat money creation is probably too excessive for the Fed to execute a soft landing, and global production constraints seem more intractable than expected. A tug-of-war between inflation and monetary restraint suggest significant economic headwinds ahead, especially if reckless government spending continues. As such, stocks likely face continued resistance that behooves investors to move to cash.  5/3/22

• DHS HAS BEEN SURVEILLING MY POSTS.   The nation is reeling from last week’s bombshell out of the Department of Homeland Security about its Disinformation Governance Board established to monitor and sanction “inappropriate” expression in social media. But this has been going on for a while. I know this because I am a conservative under surveillance by the DHS. 

In February 2021, I posted a commentary to LinkedIn about the November 2020 election with the headline:  “Joseph R. Biden, Jr.: Legal But Illegitimate President”. In reviewing the analytics available by clicking on the View count for that post, I saw some of the viewer sources.  Unlike any other post among hundreds over the years, viewers included several people from the U. S. Department of Homeland Security, along with others from a few law firms, police departments and fire departments within a certain radius of my home. 

Apparently, DHS contracts with these entities to monitor social media for “disinformation” in order to target opinionated conservatives and report back. Questioning the legitimacy of the November 2020 election is particularly verboten to the Left.  So far, no FBI agent has knocked on my door.

Contrary to DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’ claim, the greatest threat to the homeland today is not white supremacy, systemic racism, or domestic terrorism via conservative bloggers.  It is government tyranny. 5/2/22

• JUSTICE JACKSON:  THE SILVER LINING.  Well, it’s all over but the crying.  The Senate confirmed leftist Ketanji Brown Jackson for the Supreme Court.  Lo, she makes her predecessor, ultra-liberal Stephen Breyer, look like a keynote speaker at a CPAC conference.  But let’s look at the bright side. 

Jackson wears a dress and presents herself like a lady. She appears fit, albeit a little plump.  As such, she has my vote for this year’s SCOTUS swimsuit competition.  What’s more, she evidences good boudoir qualities. Her bulbous ruby lips look like they could suck chrome off a trailer hitch. And imagine the pillow talk about the penumbras and emanations of the Constitution. Oh b-a-b-y!

Given her non-response to Senator Marsha Blackburn’s question about the definition of a woman, it will be interesting to see which restroom she uses.  Maybe she will request a separate facility for the non-committal next to the men, women, and trans varieties.  

This is reminiscent of a story about the late Muriel Siebert becoming the first woman member of the New York Stock Exchange in 1968. She had to demand construction of a lady’s room, inasmuch as that hoary quintessential patriarchy only had a men’s room then and had no inclination to build an alternative for her.  Maybe the NYSE wanted (the decidedly feminine) Siebert to self-identify as a man to save plumbing costs.  Hey, they might have been woke before it was cool. 

N.B.  Ms. Siebert went on to become a billionaire in the late 1990s amid the “irrational exuberance” of the dot.com boom.  4/11/22

• ANOTHER MUSICAL INTERLUDE.  Here’s my jazz piano arrangement of the 1940s Jimmy Van Heusen popular standard, “It Could Happen To You.” https://youtu.be/vf1SjwLRxUE 

If you want to hear more sounds like this, check out Bill’s Music Lounge at https://www.williamjdodwell.com/my-piano-recordings-bills-music-lounge  4/7/22

• CHINESE YUAN AS THE WORLD’S RESERVE CURRENCY?  NOT A CHANCE.  Growing Chinese hegemony raises the specter in some quarters of the yuan becoming the world’s reserve currency replacing the U.S. dollar. Recently, this concern arose from reports of China considering yuan payments for its huge oil imports from Saudi Arabia instead of dollars.  Is this a prelude to other imports?

The dollar has earned tremendous advantage as a stable store of value, a preferred currency in global trading and investment, and as preponderant reserves of central banks.  In fact, a great majority of world commodity purchases transact in dollars. As such, this worldwide demand for the dollar safeguards against serious devaluation that could spawn hyperinflation through radically more costly imports. Or, an otherwise weak dollar could significantly discourage foreign investment, particularly in U.S. treasuries causing much higher borrowing costs in world markets.  That the yuan could achieve this stature is doubtful.  Yet, many now fear it dethroning the dollar.

What has made the dollar the envy of the world?  It is an underlying economic infrastructure borne of vibrant democracy, free markets, property rights and individual freedom.  That foundation fosters business investment, employment, consumption, and economic growth. A sound dollar also depends on prudent fiscal and monetary policy with reasonable limits on taxation, debt and regulation. Does this sound like China?

In China the state permits a modicum of economic freedom but no political freedom as it imposes a command and control environment. Nonetheless, the country enjoys an $18 trillion GDP and consistent outsize annual growth for its 1.4 billion people.  Yet, the yuan is minimally convertible internationally as it is subject to strict currency controls and pegged to the dollar.  China has a limited ability to raise yuan-denominated capital in world markets, as the yuan trades in a very thin off-shore market, despite efforts to make the currency fully convertible.  This is not the stuff of a world reserve currency that inspires global confidence in its sustained stability.

China poses a military threat that one should not mistake for its economic menace.  The world fears the country today because of its expansionary ambitions as evidenced by heavy military investment and territorial encroachment.  This is redolent of the former Soviet Union which also concentrated on developing armaments, only to go bankrupt and collapse in the process. That scenario is more likely for China than the elevation of the yuan to a world reserve currency.

But the yuan could be empowered in time if the underpinnings of the dollar’s preeminence continue to falter. Growing internal threats to democracy from ascendant socialism, marked by increasing censorship, wealth redistribution and authoritarian government, could erode the political and economic forces that constitute the American juggernaut and its coveted currency. 4/4/22

Miscellaneous Thoughts Posted to Linked In Between January and March 2022

• SPARKS FLY AT THE DINER OVER COVID MASK.  I have been critical of Covid mask-wearing since the beginning of the pandemic.  In fact, early on I posted a commentary with the headline, “Get That Mask Off Your Face”.  I have believed that people with masks symbolize a cowardly acquiescence to government tyranny and media anti-science propaganda that is antithetical to the very recalcitrance needed to counteract internal communist forces in our midst.  Indeed, these lemmings are largely representative of the gullible simpletons who gave us Democratic control in Washington, in particular the demented fool in the White House. They must be shamed.

So, imagine how I feel when I see a mask today, two years into the Covid charade. Even after authorities have lifted restrictions, and acknowledge the ineffectiveness of the face rag, some people still wear it. But I discovered a new way to react to female fanatics of this sort.

While recently waiting on line at the diner to pay my bill, a masked waitress standing next to me sparked my ire. In order to discourage her mindless hygienic practice, I told her she looked like a brainwashed government dupe still falling for a hoax. Then I gave her an inducement. I told her that if she removes the mask I could give her a kiss. 

Immediately, she tore the covering off, and I sprang into action.  I planted a nice buss on her lips and gave her a deep dip, you know, like the iconic front-page photo of the sailor in Times Square amid a mass celebration of the end of World War II.  I hope the prospect of future kisses will ensure she is always maskless.

But then the unexpected. When I finished, three other waitresses were waiting for the same treatment, and, they already had given up masks.

It’s tough being the Comprehensive Conservative LINK.  3/14/22

• TRUMP’S 2020 ELECTION FRAUD MANTRA MUST CONTINUE. Many conservatives bemoan Trump’s continual lamentation in public appearances about the rigging of the 2020 election.  They say that in the interest of a 2024 reelection bid he should focus on future solutions rather than invoke the past and invite the perception of sour grapes. Conservative media including fraud deniers Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, National Review, Forbes and the New York Post are in this camp.  And ardent pro-Trump pundits, including Bill O’Reilly, Michael Goodwin and Steve Moore, advise against harping on his “loss”.

They are wrong!  Sixty percent of Republicans believe fraud turned the 2020 election.  They want a full accounting. Yet, party leaders are silent. Trump can both cite fraud and opine about the future.  The issues are not mutually exclusive.  Besides, Republicans alienated by Trump’s fraud talk will vote for him anyway. 

As a matter of principle, Trump should continue his rant, irrespective of its effect on his reelection, in order to expose the injustice and to encourage legislative, judicial and administrative action that will prevent it from happening again.  The evidence is quite compelling and Trump says more is coming soon.  Consider this sampling LINK.

Why do conservative media veer from the fraud issue in lockstep despite the evidence and constituent support for exposure? Some oppose breaking with the American tradition of accepting the results of elections. Hell, Hillary Clinton set a precedent still whining that the Republicans stole the 2016 election from her through Russian collusion despite no evidence.  Others are afraid their objection to the election outcome will associate them with the January 6th “insurrection” and invite sham investigation, reputational damage and possible imprisonment. 

Many Republican politicians and pundits dread the prospect of media outlets and their party shunning them.  In addition, some conservatives fear lawsuits, particularly with respect to claims of voter machine irregularities, as has happened with Rudy Giuliani and Mike Lindell.  And, there are those who anticipate reprisals by government, corporate and media henchmen for the Left. Among them are certain judges who refused to hear cases related to the 2020 election despite clear violations of law.

Trump will never stop crying foul, nor should he because almost all media suppress the truth about the 2020 election. The fix is in.  Let’s hope his efforts will impel the critical mass necessary to expose and rectify this grave threat to our democracy.  2/28/22

• THE SUPERBOWL HALFTIME SHOW:  BEYOND DEPRAVITY.

The recent Superbowl Halftime Show yet again celebrated sheer degeneracy showcasing beastial rap performers cavorting about, shouting not a single intelligible word. (Sammy Davis, Jr. must be rolling in his grave.) Indeed, the stage was a veritable animal farm and noise machine that included the vile Eminem, who took a “knee” in defiance of NFL instructions not to.   

Since the vast majority of NFL players are black, the cravenly woke white Commissioner, Roger Goodell, apparently thought the show should put contemporary black culture on display.  Never mind that most of the more than 100 million viewers no doubt would find the spectacle abhorrent. The continued guilt and self-flagellation over the death of George Floyd, a career criminal and lifelong bum, still looms on the left, which feels that such racial pandering is palliative.  Perhaps, the black rap angle was in deference to Black History Month. Rather, the show was a blasphemy against that tradition.

In the spirit of racial harmony, the Superbowl show again foisted on America degrading modern black “music” that embraces thuggery, violence and nihilism.  Ironically, the abomination promotes the pathologies that undergird the social plight of the black community.

But if a racial theme is requisite, why not a retrospective on the jazz age featuring such black notables as Billy Eckstine, Nat Cole, Ella Fitzgerald, Lena Horne, Art Tatum, Charlie Parker, Oscar Peterson and Miles Davis? Plenty of black artists could emulate their performances in various authentic settings on stage.  I bet J Lo could fit into that scenario quite well. So could Queen Latifah.

Alternatively, next year the producers could live-stream a set from Bill’s Music Lounge LINK.  I await an invitation.  2/21/22

• IN DEFENSE OF WHOOPI GOLDBERG. Whoopi Goldberg is a leftist buffoon and repulsive slob.  However, the media reaction to her comment on “The View” about Jews and Nazis is reprehensible.  Without malice, she simply displayed an ignorance of history in claiming the Holocaust was not about race, but rather man’s inhumanity to man.  Yes, but it was also about Hitler’s belief in the superiority of the Aryan race and his need to eliminate what he considered an inferior race, the Jews.

Whoopi did not discern the race aspect because both the Nazis and the Jews were white.  Why the opprobrium?  Given common confusion about race, color and ethnicity, many probably think of the Nazi atrocities in terms of generic inhumanity rather than racial animus.

Why does Whoopi’s assertion offend Jews?  Does it diminish Holocaust victimhood as a possible lever that elicits special deference and accommodation to Jews out of empathy borne of their horrific experience?  Does she suppress the Jewish uniqueness of the Nazi Holocaust by which Jews monopolize the term, notwithstanding similar atrocities commissioned by Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot?  Too much public acquiescence to the perceived offenses of aggrieved groups is the very essence of wokeness, and thus dangerous.

In 2018 Kanye West, a black entertainer, questioned whether slavery was as oppressive as claimed since he said it lasted four-hundred years (with little resistance by the slaves). He suggested slavery might have been “a choice”, perhaps because it provided subsistence (food, shelter, etc.). Of course, this view, if widely adopted, would diminish the gravity of slavery and its utility for political advantage today. As such, its expression is verboten, even by blacks.

Like the Holocaust, any diminution of slavery undermines a certain leverage for blacks to garner popular empathy.  Support for reparations and the many social accommodations to blacks today would diminish in contemplation of a lesser notion of slavery. Thus, to suggest Kanye’s view would invite banishment.  In fact, he bemoaned the lack of freedom to present his “new idea”.

Whoopi has a right to speak her mind.  Recall the proposed Nazi march in the predominately-Jewish community of Skokie, IL in 1978.  Local authorities forbade the demonstration but the State Supreme Court upheld the right of the marchers, invoking First Amendment freedom of speech. The First Amendment does not apply legally to the Goldberg case as government is not involved. But the corporatist cancel culture doing government’s bidding undercuts its once sacrosanct spirit.

In this world of woke, we must resist unreasonable sensitivities, paranoia and political motives that aggrieved groups impose on the public, be they Jews, transgenders, blacks, gays, or women. In defense of individual liberty, we must overcome the fear of offending, and challenge increasingly strident and often ersatz grievances, as well as tyrannical sanctions by corporate interests.  2/7/22

• BILL’S WHORE HOUSE NOW OPEN.  I just opened a brothel right above the digital “Bill’s Music Lounge” LINK a la the saloons of the Old West.  This is in response to the de facto legalization of the oldest profession by the new George Soros-installed District Attorney. According to his recent policy announcement, he will prosecute only major crimes. That sounds like a green light for the red light to me.

My appointed Madam, Stella, has recruited a stable of lovelies from around the world offering a wide range of flavors. In celebration of her new role managing the ladies of the evening, I feature the late jazz pianist Oscar Peterson with his trio performing the apt “Stella By Starlight”, the 1940s classic by Victor Young and Ned Washington.  See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Au9DrtKLEpU (Skip the annoying ad.)

Check it out, guys.  Reasonable rates apply.

Masks prohibited.  1/18/22

• SCOTUS DECISION ON VACCINE MANDATE IS NO PANACEA.  While the Supreme Court blocked President Biden’s vaccine, testing and mask mandate for large companies, relief is quite limited. The Court exempted mandates of health care companies, as they are supported by legislative authority granted Medicare and Medicaid. It also allows state and local government mandates, as well as voluntary company mandates on employees.  As such, the decision will not fully relieve labor shortages resulting from related firings and resignations, nor dispel misgivings about authoritarian governments and businesses who mandate on their own.

The Court’s decision centered only on whether OSHA has statutory authority to mandate private employer policy outside the agency’s intended purpose, workplace safety. Accordingly, it ruled that only Congress and the states may decide on that right. The Court did not address the freedom of individuals to opt out of the vaccine; nor did it much consider the true scientific basis of the viral threat, which should be the only justification for public restraints. Lower courts are adjudicating those merits brought by lawsuits against mandates of state and local governments, and businesses.

The Covid virus has been limited in that symptoms are absent or only mild in most cases, especially Omicron. Also, pre-diagnosed Omicron hospitalizations are not excessive, yielding only one reported death in the U.S. Reports of overtaxed hospitals mainly arise from staff shortages attributable to firings and resignations over vaccine mandates.

As such, a cost-benefit analysis does not support mass vaccine, testing and mask mandates with their economically and socially damaging mitigation protocols.  Restricting the well for the benefit of the small vulnerable population of elderly and immuno-suppressed is not justified. Indeed, the severity of the virus does not warrant universal sacrifice.  By contrast, for example, Ebola, having a 90% death rate, would justify draconian government intervention. The Court did not incorporate that distinction, which would protect against imperious health mandates in the future.

The Court did not contemplate one’s right to decline the experimental Covid vaccine based on:  1) Individual concern for unknown long-term effects, 2) The natural immunity of the infected, 3) Religious reservation. The minority opinion considers the opt-out question beyond the purview of the Court because it lacks the expertise inherent in OSHA regulation. The majority opinion highlights the need for Congress to ensure sufficient clarity in its laws to prevent overly expansive interpretation by regulators in their application, a longstanding problem. In particular, congressional precision protects against agency liberties invoked as pretexts under conditions of emergency, such as the Covid pandemic.

Some companies, such as Citibank, will mandate vaccination on their own to avoid possible legal liability to infected employees.  1/17/22

• BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE - AND WHORE HOUSE.  Memories abound at Bill’s Music Lounge, a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounge lifestyle of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK. 

Wild Bill here with a big announcement.  The new George Soros installed District Attorney in New York City has announced a radical law enforcement policy that reduces all but a few major crimes to misdemeanors or mere violations.  While this is outrageous for the safety and quality of life of New Yorkers, there is a silver lining. It means I may add a brothel to my music lounge with impunity, and the ladies will not be prosecuted, or even arrested. I’ll run it as a separate profit center at a much higher margin than regular operations.   

Consider the saloons in movie westerns.  The first floor features a bar and a honkytonk piano. But there are also “the ladies upstairs” who provide added services. The old television program, “Gunsmoke”, starring James Arness as Matt Dillon that aired for twenty years captured this culture. Kitty, the saloon owner, who usually appeared mixing with the patrons downstairs, implicitly managed an operation above with an iron hand.

Of course, Bill’s Music Room and Whore House will be different. In the place of the honkytonk piano, I present a 7-foot Steinway grand amid elegant accoutrement. I will pipe my piano music into the newly designated upstairs rooms for consistent ambience, and perhaps even some stimulation. And, I trust I will get along just fine with my “Kitty”.

Hey guys, if you don’t score downstairs, try again upstairs where it’s a sure thing.

Masks prohibited.  1/14/22

• BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE CONTINUES.  Memories abound at Bill’s Music Lounge, a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounge lifestyle of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK. 

It’s a new year, but yesteryear still reigns here.  Another scintillating night in the books.  I finished my last set at 3 a.m. and it was time to get ready to close. Last call was underway.  The crew tallied the register, closed the piano top and vacuumed the floor to the sounds of Sinatra on the jukebox. 

Surprisingly, Laura the coat-check girl, appeared.  “I thought you left a while ago.”, I said.  She replied furtively, “I’ve been waiting for you.”  Ooooh!  A guy’s got to have a lot of energy in this business.   

Check out Bill’s Music Lounge.  The action never stops.

Masks prohibited.  1/7/22

• OMICRON:  DOUBLING DOWN ON STUPID.  Why are people standing in long lines to test for Omicron? Even conservatives bemoan the shortage of home test kits.  From the beginning, we have known that, except for the elderly and immuno-suppressed (the “vulnerable”), majority of infections are asymptomatic, and most others produce relatively mild illness that does not require hospitalization. What’s more, children are unscathed by the virus.  Moreover, the Omicron variant is considerably less threatening than previous Covid incarnations, to date having caused no deaths in the U.S.  These are facts.

This means the non-vulnerable infected need not be concerned about infection, nor worry about spreading it to others, notwithstanding its extreme transmissibility.  In fact, the virus now is more akin to a cold than even the flu.  As such, government and media obsession over case counts is political misdirection. 

So, why get tested?  If symptoms appear, one can treat them like a cold. If they persist, the sick may take the test and, if positive, seek Covid-specific therapeutics, which the authorities only now allow for general distribution. They include monoclonal antibodies, and shortly, a Pfizer antiviral pill. But many of those seeking tests today are without symptoms and motivated only by media-induced fear of infection.

Those testing positive unnecessarily subject themselves and their contacts to onerous quarantine and intrusive tracking protocols. Why do this, unless to qualify for Covid therapeutics, which may not be needed?  Those not tested can avoid this imposition without consequence, except for the vulnerable who may self-quarantine for their safety. Since Covid positivity does not endanger the non-vulnerable, why get tested, except for misguided employer mandates?

But mere case counts are driving public hysteria and a stampede to testing centers.  Just what the government and Pharma want in order to turbo-charge the sale of lucrative “vaccines” that do not prevent infection, but only mitigate its severity - for a while.

As some posited at the beginning of the pandemic, including this writer, doing nothing, allowing the virus to run its course, fosters superior natural herd immunity that does prevent further infection. This realization, in consideration of the weakness of Omicron and the now established ineffectiveness of lockdowns, social distancing and masks, should bring us full circle back to that age-old epidemiological reality. Yet many are still gullible to media fear mongering, as governments and businesses reinstate mask mandates in reaction to a current raft of relatively harmless infection cases.

Even Dr. Fauci now concedes the dire economic and social costs of his warnings, albeit probably out of political expediency. Until recently, Democrat-imposed Covid restrictions were abating, although some vaccine mandates remain.  Increasingly, people are getting wise to the charade. But not most of those standing on line for testing.  1/5/22         

• CAN YOU TRUST YOUR DOCTOR FOR TRUTHFUL COVID ADVICE?  Advocates of personal choice regarding Covid vaccination say individuals should have the freedom to decide for themselves in consultation with their doctor. But many doctors and nurses seem ill informed or politically compromised concerning the pandemic.

Like all professions, medical practitioners operate within their specialties with little reading or concern about issues outside their expertise. Hence, they may be as uninformed as laymen about COVID. For example, I questioned an internist about certain realities of the virus vis a vis the surrounding propaganda. He replied dismissively, “Do you have a Ph.D. in epidemiology?”.  I told him that I do not have to be so trained because I listen to dissidents who are. I added that the public does not hear their views because the mass media suppress them.

I also debated a nurse while she administered my booster shot.  I told herthe authorities and the liberal media obsess over cases, which are not important because most infected are asymptomatic or only mildly ill.  I said the focus should center only on the vulnerable, i.e., the elderly and those with immuno-suppressing conditions. Metrics should concentrate on (genuine) hospitalizations and deaths, not cases.  She replied she had Covid and became very sick, but not hospitalized.  What’s more, she was deathly afraid of infecting her grandson, not knowing that children are virtually immune to the virus.  Then the shocker:  The nurse said her only solace throughout her ordeal was Dr. Fauci’s comments!

And there is politics. Today most medical practices, and many hospitals, operate as corporations following their consolidation through acquisition.  As such, formerly independent doctors follow orders from superiors who themselves are directed by the highly politicized American Medical Association (AMA). There is evidence the AMA and Big Pharma work in concert to spread propaganda and hysteria aimed at achieving maximal vaccine sales, with full support from the media. Only until recently, they ignored treatment possibilities that interfere with that end.

The AMA has even issued a letter to members on how to craft misleading language to encourage vaccination compliance, irrespective of science. Here is one opinion. https://www.citizensjournal.us/busted-scripted-covid-propaganda-reveals-how-nearly-all-american-doctors-are-just-puppets-of-the-corrupt-american-medical-association-and-the-vaccine-industrial-complex/ . Dissenting medical personnel commonly face vilification and firing.

Thus, do not expect the complete truth from your doctor. The medical community and Democrat operatives are complicit in the fraud as they do the bidding for the pharmaceutical firms, likely in exchange for payoffs from their Covid revenues.

At the same time, the Democrat Party and its media allies promote this exercise in public deception and submission as an analog to their effort to impose an authoritarian socialist state on a docile society.  Also, they want to perpetuate Covid fear to justify mail-in voting in November as a means of rigging elections once again. 1/3/22

Miscellaneous Thoughts Posted to Linked In Between October and December 2021

• SOME PERSONAL VENTING. Channeling the late Andy Rooney, I invoke my inner curmudgeon to let off some steam.  Perhaps you share the frustrations I cite, in which case a collective vocal reaction might impel desired change. Herewith, some of my peeves.

My Pillow commercials

The My Pillow cable television commercial has jumped the shark.  Since all retailers have banned the product because of founder Mike Lindell’s conservative politics, he is forced to multiply his ads for tv sales.  And, additional offerings including bed sheets, towels, mattress toppers and slippers compound the annoyance. Kudos for his gallant efforts to expose the fraud in the November 2020 election, the reason for his banishment from stores and most media. But, jeez, even that service cannot compensate for the supreme exasperation his ubiquitous screen image engenders.

Monthly charity donations

At Christmas time, solicitations for charity donations culminate, but they have been proliferating all year in a new form.  Now, instead of an open-ended appeal for a gift, charities ask for monthly offerings that can be levied against a credit card in perpetuity, invariably $11 or $19 a month. What’s more, they flood the airwaves with the ads a la Mike Lindell.  Of course, many donors will forget about the recurring charge, dismiss it as too nominal to stop, or perhaps be too embarrassed to halt it.  But others will in time want to discontinue the hit and no doubt will encounter difficulty ending it. So many dupes fall for this. I say this out of skepticism about where the donations really go and from contempt for media manipulation.

Pleasantries between television host and guest

Cable news anchors have to stop waiting interminably for reciprocity from their guests when the host offers a greeting and a thank you at the beginning and end of an interview.  Satellite transmission delay in particular makes this practice especially unbearable.  Of course, the host wants to be nice so the guest might return, and the guest panders to the host in the hope of more invitations.  But this superfluous deference alienates the viewer. It seems most hosts wait for the guest’s response out of insecurity that demands an expression of gratitude, and even validation. By my observation, only Laura Ingraham dispenses with the nonsense and cuts to the chase.  Bill O’Reilly used to also.

Obsequious television guests

Cable news guests have to stop fawning over their hosts.  One particular gripe is the “that’s exactly right” affirmation directed to the host and sometimes a fellow guest. A simple “yes”, or equivalent comment will do. A guest should not butter up the host in order to get future invitations. The host should encourage this standard in the interest of their viewers, who sometimes seem an afterthought.

Artificial eyelashes on female news personalities

Networks must ditch the requisite phony eyelashes on female on-air personalities.  They are simply awful.  Bikinis would be more suitable. 12/28/21

• MY MUSICAL CHRISTMAS OFFERING.  The Comprehensive Conservative wishes all a Merry Christmas (except leftists).  In that spirit, I present my piano arrangement of “I’ll Be Home For Christmas”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo_hjPP5PGQ

For more of my songs of yore drop by Bill’s Music Lounge at https://www.williamjdodwell.com/my-piano-recordings-bills-music-lounge 12/22/21

• HOW ABOUT INSECTICIDE FOR THE GOLDBUGS?  The physical gold hucksters are all over media now that persistent inflation has emerged. Not since the hyperinflation of the 1970s has there been as seemingly a cogent reason for these opportunists to push their wares. As always, they extrapolate current inflation alarm into a long-term doomsday scenario involving the collapse of the dollar predicated on astronomical spending and debt.   

While that prospect is problematic, and perhaps closer than it ever has been, the dollar likely will remain the world’s reserve currency and a safe haven destination, thus preventing catastrophic devaluation, as no other nation would be better off.  To buy gold to hedge against inflation and long-term structural economic decline at the expense of better capital appreciation from other asset classes is a fool’s errand.   

Moreover, according to Morningstar, gold has not been a good hedge against inflation historically, except over several decades.  In fact, on average, the correlation between gold appreciation and inflation loss is only 16% and that includes periods of even negative gold returns.  Stocks and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) appreciate better, and throw off income in the form of dividends and interest.

The goldbugs warn of a new stagflation marked by chronic elevated inflation, slow growth, impending economic collapse, and dollar devaluation. But one trusts that in America responsible fiscal and monetary corrections borne of dynamic democracy would pre-empt such extremes eventually. That said, current far-left government policies intent on subverting the nation for political gain could in time invite the devastation the goldbugs advise against. But the economic and political pendulums probably would swing back to normalcy before Armageddon.

So, pass the bug spray. 12/20/21

• REMEMBERING THE COPACABANA.  More memories at Bill’s Music Lounge, a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounge lifestyle of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK. 

The Copacabana was a world famous mob-run, Latin-themed New York night club whose heyday spanned the 1940s through the 1960s. It probably was most widely known for the brawl that occurred there in 1957 involving several New York Yankee players, including Mickey Mantle and Billy Martin.  The melee was front-page news in all the local papers the next day, and probably across the country.  Here’s Mantle’s account of that incident.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuGnaUIBQrA    

I arrived at the iconic venue on the corner of 5th Avenue and 60th Street in 1977 during the club’s new incarnation under one John Juliano.  Gone were the famous showgirls.  The main room downstairs, that featured a sunken stage on which the likes of Sammy Davis, Jr., Frank Sinatra, and Tony Bennett had performed, was filled with disco ducks and well-dressed gals.

But upstairs time stood still.  The circular bar remained, occupied mostly by high-end hookers. Few guys sat there because meeting a regular woman was unlikely.  Also, the ladies of the night were expensive.  But they knew that eventually some high rollers, or unsuspecting out-of-towners, would arrive for a nice payday. At their rates, one trick was enough to make the wait worthwhile.

So, the only option for me was dinner for two in the dining area. It was a great place to impress a lady.  The Irving Fields trio provided traditional music and cheek-to-cheek dancing, along the lines of Bill’s Music Lounge today. In a deep broadcaster-like voice, Fields, the house pianist, panned the room and publicly acknowledged VIPs. I specifically remember him calling out, “Dan Farrell of the New York Daily News is with us tonight. Welcome.”  It was a nice touch.

The following year Barry Manilow further institutionalized the establishment with his new hit song, “Copacabana”. 

You can capture some semblance of this nugget of yesteryear at Bill’s Music Lounge.

Masks prohibited.  12/8/21

• BE WARY OF THOSE ANNOYING GOLD ADS. Historically, gold has been a popular dollar hedge against inflation and impending economic doomsday scenarios.  But a physical gold ad that political pundit Dick Morris hawked on his Sunday radio show recently is particularly disingenuous. 

As a selling point for using the precious metal as a hedge, he seemed to warn against both inflation in terms of lost purchasing power, and the declining dollar in terms of the exchange rate that exacerbates inflation.  It is clear that, say, 10% annual inflation, reduces domestic purchasing power equally, but it does not necessarily equally affect the foreign-exchange rate. That is, $100 in the bank becomes worth only $90. But Morris seemed to frame the issue also in terms of a decline in the exchange rate of the dollar, as to say that the drop in the value of the dollar against major currencies is necessarily driven entirely by inflation and therefore another reason to hedge with gold.

But the link between inflation and the dollar exchange rate is not necessarily linear.  While inflation exerts downward pressure on the dollar, it does not move the exchange rate equally, or necessarily downward. Other factors vis a vis other countries also influence the value of the dollar differently, namely interest-rate differentials, trade flows (goods and services), portfolio flows (securities), net foreign direct investment, and economic growth.  In addition, safe-haven investing in the dollar is common.

A declining dollar exchange rate effectively imports inflation because import prices rise as the rate deteriorates.  This gives domestic producers more leeway to raise prices in tandem with imports without compromising competitiveness.  The result is inflation. But because of the aforementioned other factors impinging on the value of the dollar, it is inaccurate to equate the change in the dollar exchange rate to the inflation rate as Morris seems to suggest. So, while 10% inflation reduces the purchasing power of $100 to $90, the dollar exchange rate may decline, say, 2%, or even rise, versus other currencies and therefore not be a reason for a gold hedge.

To wit, current year-over-year inflation has been 6% while the dollar appreciated, not depreciated, 6% against six major currencies.  Meanwhile, almighty gold declined, not appreciated, 3% in the period, for a total loss of 9%. So much for the ballyhooed gold inflation hedge. Perhaps Morris’ point is that gold effectively protects against economic Armageddon that decimates the dollar, and not just against chronic inflation. But does gold investing involving storage costs, no income stream, and an ineffective hedge justify sacrificing the long melt up in stocks?  12/6/21

• DEFY THE WOKE: PLAY “BABY IT’S COLD OUTSIDE”. More memories at Bill’s Music Lounge, a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounge lifestyle of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK.

The 1940s Burton Lane/Frank Loesser classic, “Baby It’s Cold Outside”, has been banned by programmers in recent years at the behest of the “MeToo” emasculation movement. Absurdly, the persistent suitor in the song is now considered predatory, even rapacious. Here is a 1949 clip featuring Ricardo Montalban and Esther Williams in the supposedly scandalous performance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzeFmfOglbA

Disseminate this video far and wide with instructions to play it daily throughout every winter in defiance of woke tyranny. Be sure to encourage redistribution.

F**k you #MeToo.

See music like this performed at Bill’s Music Lounge.

Masks prohibited. 12/3/21

• BOBBY COLE:  A LOUNGE LIZARD’S FAVORITE.  Memories abound at Bill’s Music Lounge, a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounge lifestyle of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK. 

Today, I invoke an icon of the classic lounge act, Bobby Cole. Oddly, this singer/pianist was better known inside the music business than he was publicly.  Sinatra called him his “favorite saloon singer”. And, he had a special relationship with Judy Garland.  As house pianist at “Jilly’s” in New York, he caught Garland’s eye.  She eventually became his cougar and that association elevated him to Musical Director for her television show after Mel Torme was fired.  Here is a clip of his performance on that program in 1964. Folks, it doesn’t get better than this. In the third song, he accompanies Garland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zvzIsT5DXA (he starts at 1:39)

I saw Cole play frequently in New York venues in the late 1970s.  I had heard that sometimes Liza Minnelli dropped by to perform with him informally, a benefit that grew out of his friendship with her mother, Garland.  But, only in his mid-forties, this ladies’ man was already past his prime.  Purportedly, the ravages of drugs, alcohol and tobacco took their toll, not unlike his famous mentor.  His clear-toned vocals had morphed into a raspy voice that made him a different performer, albeit still entertaining.

He met a tragic end in 1996.  During a break while on a gig in New York, he took a walk along First Avenue.  On the way back, he became very ill, grabbed a light post to steady himself and slumped to the ground of a heart attack.  Eventually, a passer-by called 911.  At first, a miscommunication of the events led many to believe he literally died in the gutter, destitute.  In fact, he expired at home surrounded by his family. 

Come on down to Bill’s Music Lounge for some great memories.

Masks prohibited. 12/1/21

• THE LEFT’S REAL MOTIVE BEHIND ITS OBSESSION WITH COVID VACCINATION.  Many conservatives believe government Covid mandates help the Left amass incremental power to effect the ultimate destruction of America and the substitution of a new socialist order. 

In my opinion, an additional ulterior motive of the Left likely underlies its obsession with mass vaccination:  Pharmaceutical kickbacks to Democrats from vaccine sales in exchange for their hype in a symbiosis of government, Big Pharma, and media. A share of potentially hundreds of billions of dollars of pharmaceutical profits is at stake.  More vaccinations beget more cash to fund liberal election campaigns and their Marxist agendas for years to come. 

The recent emergence of the Covid variant, Omicron, may introduce yet another emergency ruse that further justifies both mitigation and vaccine mandates facilitated by new public hysteria.   

The Fauci fraud

Throughout the pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci has become rich as a faux scientific authority and corrupt propagandist.  A research employee of his reported first-hand that Fauci, during drinks with staff at a Maryland bar called “The Barking Dog”, displayed his 2020 tax return to the group sporting a $9 million income. He also bragged he expects to double that in 2021.  Those “earnings” likely reflect compensation from Big Pharma for lying about Covid to boost vaccine sales. What else could it be, given his $434,000 government salary, investments?

Science is ignored

The money grab by the Left explains why Democratic governments and liberal media exaggerate the Covid threat by continuing to fixate on mere Covid infections and mass testing, rather than set policy based on genuine hospitalizations and deaths. They ignore, indeed suppress, the science that has shown since inception that only the elderly and those with compromised immunity systems are at risk to serious illness or death from Covid. 

In fact, to date, the vast majority of those infected have experienced no symptoms, or have suffered relatively mild sickness. The average Covid decedent is 77 and children are virtually unaffected. Yet, now government urges or requires those over five to get inoculated.  Of course, Covid mandates and hype are irrational and the Left knows it.  But what a boon for the vaccine makers and their kickback beneficiaries, as well as their shareholders.

The Left pushes universal vaccination, masks, lockdowns and school closings despite no scientific support for their necessity. It also ignores the effectiveness of superior natural immunity as a substitute for vaccination. In addition, the Left and its stooges have vigorously resisted proven cheap therapeutics, such as Hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir. In fact, the scientific community curiously has demonstrated little interest in developing new therapeutics.

What’s more, the media suppress the relatively high rate of deaths and serious side-effects from the vaccine. The Left dismisses natural immunity, therapeutics, and vaccine side-effects because they undermine pharmaceutical vaccine sales and kickbacks to Democrats in my opinion. Furthermore, the authorities inflate the already infinitesimal Covid death rate by all manner of co-morbidities, that reportedly affect 94% of official deaths, to justify ongoing government intervention.   

The gullible public

The disturbing gullibility and ignorance of the public accommodate the Left’s corrupt political and monetary ends, which involve compromised scientists.  It is astonishing how many people still voluntarily wear useless masks, even outdoors, and despite vaccination.  Sadly, the mask has become a badge of acquiescence to tyrannical government and its allies.  Its appearance encourages more intransigence and inspires greater unfounded public alarm in a vicious cycle of mandate and compliance.  Even many conservatives fall for the gambit about infection cases and testing. To modify James Carville’s caveat about the economy, it’s about those profiles vulnerable to serious illness and death, stupid. The other Covid subjects can bear infection with little or no consequence, just like the flu.  The Left seeks to eradicate the virus.  It knows this is impossible and unnecessary, but the goal assures perpetually empowering mitigation and enriching vaccine mandates.  

The Omicron variant

With the arrival of the Omicron variant, Democrat governments and media are doubtless salivating at the opportunity to declare a new emergency and mindlessly reinstate feckless lockdowns and unnecessary testing under the guise of protecting the people. New York Governor Kathy Hochul already is doubling down on past failure without any knowledge of the virus’ severity or the ability of existing vaccines to thwart it.  I can hear other liberal governors now, “Out of an abundance of caution, blah, blah, blah … “ What’s more, the pharmaceutical firms and their kickback payees fantasize over the possibility of having to produce new mandated vaccines.  What a bonanza!  But if Omicron is a bust, as I suspect, there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth all over the Left. It would be about time.

The new Covid variant also presents Democrats with another opportunity to tank the economy and dispense unrelated fiscal stimulus to operatives of the Left.  Consider the teachers’ unions, a huge Democrat bastion, received some $200 billion in federal fiscal Covid aid, obviously many, many multiples of what is required for general education purposes, much less just Covid protection. Rather, the largesse is ammunition for fighting the internal war on America as the leftist onslaught toward socialism advances.  One has to wonder whether successive Covid variants are the latest deception for perpetuating the destruction. 11/29/21

• SHOCKING SURPRISE AT BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE.  A seismic jolt occurred at Bill’s Music Lounge, a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounge lifestyle of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK.

I eased into an intro to “The Way We Were” when Brenda, my head waitress, unexpectedly picked up the mic and cooed the song like a nightingale.  Here’s my (elongated) piano recording  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sclYyFkpipo

Who knew?  Songstress was not on her resume.  Brenda worked the pole in strip joints across America for years.  Now, a bit long in the tooth for that, but still carrying a marketable 46DDD rack, she presides over libation distribution at Bill’s. But given her new found singing ability, I’ll have to expand her role. 

Hidden talents are often revealed quite surprisingly. Anita O’Day, the great jazz singer, spoke of one such experience.  While performing in a club, she noticed a woman standing in the back who had come in from the rain.  When O’Day took a break, the woman stepped onto the stage to blow everyone’s mind.  She changed her name to June Christy and the rest is history.   

Perhaps one night you’ll be shocked at Bill’s Music Lounge.  Check it out.

Masks prohibited.  11/22/21

• HAREM AT BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE.  The saga continues at Bill’s Music Lounge, a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounge lifestyle of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK.

It was a hot night at Bill’s Music Lounge, and I’m not talking about the weather. I sat down to start my next set when a beautiful woman sprawled across the piano before me, her ample rack spilling over the keyboard.  Then, I felt another woman behind me massage my scalp as she sexily whispered in my ear, “Play ‘Witchcraft’ ”.  So, with cleavage in my face and lady-fingers in my hair, I obliged.

“Those fingers through my hair/

That sly come-hither stare/

That strips my conscience bare/

It’s Witchcraft.”

Here’s a clip of the song performed by its composer, Cy Coleman, under the watchful eye of host Hugh Hefner on his Playboy Penthouse television show circa 1959. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmDpSP5Y3HI

Guys, the gals are waiting.  Check out Bill’s Music Lounge.

Masks prohibited.  11/19/21

• HAZEL SCOTT: A MUSIC GIANT OF YESTERYEAR.  I present Bill’s Music Lounge, a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounges of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK.

As house pianist, I reflect on role models I have observed over the years in my nocturnal travels.  One was Hazel Scott, a child piano prodigy and popular jazz singer-pianist of the 1930s and 1940s, particularly remembered for her stints at New York’s popular Café Society. This YouTube clip reveals a young attractive, vivacious musician. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySQ8cA4a-f8 (Skip the annoying ads.)

But that early image did not comport with the person I witnessed fairly regularly in the late 1970s in a Manhattan night club.  While she performed very well, she seemed forlorn and detached, not engaging with the audience as she did originally.  Her mood might have been soured by her blacklisting by industry heads for boldly expressing her opposition to racial discrimination and segregation, especially to the House Un-American Activities Committee 25 years earlier. Married to outspoken Harlem Congressman Adam Clayton Powell, Jr., politics was a part of her life. Tragically, her protestations diminished a promising career and consigned her to relative obscurity in the U.S. for many years.

I missed her for a while but caught up with her again in the early 1980s at the Milford Plaza Hotel near Times Square. I recall reading she was ecstatic about the gig because it was a long-term contract to play five nights a week right in her back yard.  This meant steady work and no strenuous traveling around the country, in Europe and elsewhere. I dropped by to see her play and was struck by how elevated her performance was.  She was cookin’ on that piano as I had not seen her previously.   

Shortly later, she died of cancer at 61.  In retrospect, it seemed she knew the end was imminent and was expressing her last hurrah through her instrument. That would explain her ramped up performance that knocked me out.

Music can be uplifting in many ways.  Avail yourself of that potentiality at Bill’s Music Lounge. 

Masks prohibited.  11/17/21 

• MICK JAGGER INVADES BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE.  An interloper trespassed Bill’s Music Lounge, a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounges of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK.

I was finishing a set at the piano when I heard a commotion at the door.  Properly, my gatekeepers were trying to prevent an animated Mick Jagger from entering. Pointing to a sign on the wall, I told him my policy is quite clear.  “No rock stars allowed.”  The following exchange ensued:

Jagger:  I understand, Bill, but …

Bill:  Hold it!  Who do you think you are, Frank Sinatra?  It’s Mr. Dodwell for you.

Jagger:  Yes, sir. I heard so much about Bill’s Music Lounge I had to check it out. 

Bill:  I don’t like you rock and roll guys.  You and your ilk supplanted a beautiful music culture.  Ok, sing a Cole Porter song.  If you’re decent, I’ll let you perform it on stage to my accompaniment. 

Jagger cleared his throat, took a deep breath, and forged into “Begin The Beguine”, right there in the foyer.  Shockingly, he wasn’t half bad.

Returning to the piano with Jagger in tow, I opened with a Latin rhythm intro for his song.  Then out of nowhere two guys with electric guitars appeared.  Jagger grabbed the mic and proceeded to scream, “I - can’t – get – no - sa-tis-fac-tion …”.  I was horrified.  He tried to hijack my club.  I let him finish.  But I got the last laugh.  When done, he faced stone-cold-silence. My patrons don’t want to hear that crap.  They come to enjoy adult music; real music.  Jagger left with his head down and his tail between his legs. 

Afterwards, a diehard customer asked me if I was selling out.  I said that Jagger told me he was going to sing “Begin The Beguine”.  He said, “S-u-r-e he did”.  It took weeks to restore my credibility.

Let’s be clear.  Bill’s Music Lounge is dedicated to traditional music and only traditional music.

Masks prohibited.  11/15/21

• PROCEED WITH CAUTION AT BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE. A word of caution about amorous dalliances at Bill’s Music Lounge, my digital retrospective on the cocktail lounges of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK.

In 1970 when Johnny Carson hosted The Tonight Show from New York City, he used to frequent a watering hole called “Jilly’s” owned by Jilly Rizzo, a good friend of Frank Sinatra who also visited the establishment regularly. Sinatra even had his own reserved roped-off table.  One night Carson, after too many drinks, aggressively hit on a woman at the bar.  As it happened, she was the girlfriend of a mobster who saw his every move.  The Mafia don summoned a couple of thugs who threw Carson down the stairway.  Carson missed his show for three days afterwards hiding in his apartment out of fear of further retaliation. True story. https://nypost.com/2013/10/09/mob-wanted-johnny-carson-dead-after-drunken-flirtation/  (Scroll down.)

This is a warning to guys given to pursuing the lovely ladies at my bar.  I certainly do not invite mob figures, but in this business one may not know if such a character is present who could be inadvertently offended. So, before you make a move, be watchful for a guy with a 27 inch neck and a violin case.  And if spotted, don’t sit with your back to the door. As the house pianist, I’m not exempt from danger.  Irving Fields, an elegant, much sought after pianist back in the day, told the story of Frank Sinatra once shutting the piano cover on his hands.

Have fun, but proceed with caution at Bill’s Music Lounge.

Masks prohibited.  11/12/21

• EJECTING A LEFTIST FROM BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE.  More action at Bill’s Music Lounge, my digital retrospective on the cocktail lounges of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK.

I was finishing a set at the piano when Brenda, the head waitress, passed me a note.  It said there was a leftist at the bar spreading propaganda.  Concerned, I got up to take a look.  He was loudly advocating climate change this, diversity that, open borders, Black Lives Matter, radicalization of the schools, and generally defending the new far-left Democrat Party.  I briefly debated him but he had no defense.  

Since my arguments humiliated him, he threw a punch. I responded with my stock five-point counterattack:  A left jab to the head, a right upper cut, a left to the solar plexus, a right upper cut, and a left cross to put him away. I left him on the floor in a pool of blood.  Frank, my operations manager, called EMS to cart him away. 

Bill’s Music Lounge is the only bar I have ever known where the house pianist doubles as bouncer. I had to collect myself for my next set, especially for the ladies sitting around the piano.  After playing the theme from “Rocky”, I settled into regular mode in a seamless transition from pugilistic to amorous with Hoagy Carmichael's "The Nearness Of You". LINK

Enjoy Bill’s Music Lounge, but don’t mess with Bill.

Masks prohibited.  11/10/21

• TEMPTING THE VICE SQUAD AT BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE.  More action at Bill’s Music Lounge, my digital retrospective on the cocktail lounges of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK.

The dance floor was jammed.  But a mysterious gap in the crowd caught my eye from the piano.  It turned out that one couple was dancing horizontally.  Was it my song selection that inspired such passion?  Perhaps.  It was “Feelings”, a consistent crowd pleaser that gets everyone on their feet in ten seconds like it was 1975. The women love it.  I do too, but suspected politics later mocked the hit song and made it disappear.

I’m usually laissez faire about most risqué behavior, but public fornication could get my joint raided.  So, I dispatched the couple to a vacant room with a plush carpet and a jukebox so they could horizontally dance all they want.

Never a dull moment at Bill’s Music Lounge.  Come on down!

No mask allowed.  11/8/21

• PREDATORY SEX AT BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE.  Happenings continue at Bill’s Music Lounge, my digital retrospective on the cocktail lounges of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK. 

While noodling on the ivories, I panned the room.  An aging, but attractive, cougar on the prowl appeared prancing along the back wall.  She found her prey - a guy about 25.  I looked away momentarily, and when I turned back they were gone.  Geez! I wish it were that easy to score when I was his age. I'm sure he enjoyed his Mrs. Robinson moment. 

I’m Wild Bill, inveterate night crawler, skirt chaser and music lover who has found a niche at Bill’s Music Lounge.  As the proprietor, host and house pianist, I strive to create an enjoyable romantic atmosphere that centers on traditional music. On piano, I invoke the popular classics and jazz standards of yore institutionalized by such practitioners as Frank Sinatra, Ella Fitzgerald, Nat King Cole, Nancy Wilson, Steve & Edie, Dean Martin, Doris Day, Vic Damone, et al.  I also embrace similar latter day music of the ‘60s, ‘70s and ‘80s. And, ladies and gentlemen, it’s a great place to score.

Come to Bill’s Music Lounge for old school entertainment and lascivious thrills.  Jonathan Schwartz recently retired after purveying these beautiful songs for more than 50 years on the radio, but the music continues at Bill’s new den of iniquity.

Check it out.

No mask allowed.  11/5/21

• A TITILLATING SURPRISE AT BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE.  The joint was jumpin’ at Bill’s Music Lounge, my digital retrospective on the cocktail lounges of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. See LINK.

While playing “Besame Mucho”, a curvaceous Latina suddenly climbed atop the piano and went into a strip tease to my music.  She went all the way down to her birthday suit eliciting a roar from the titillated crowd. The only hitch was when she flung her G-string it landed on my head obstructing my view of the sheet music.  Guys lined up for an autograph of this future star.  An unexpected treat for all.

Come on down to Bill’s Music Lounge for a scintillating time.

F***k you, #MeToo!

No masks allowed.  11/3/21

• THE LATEST AT BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE:  Here’s the latest on activities at Bill’s Music Lounge, my digital retrospective on the cocktail lounges of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s, featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano. LINK

The place was packed Friday night into the wee hours.  Chicks were everywhere, all suitably wearing 1940s attire. One highlight (for me) was an elegant lady sitting at the end of the grand piano directly in my line of sight casting an amorous look.  I segued to the Cole Porter song, “You’d Be So Nice To Come Home To”.  Then her bedroom eyes became so intense I started flubbing my chord changes.  The perils of the job.

Check out Bill’s Music Lounge.  Guys, if you can’t get laid here, you should join a monastery.  11/1/21    

• MY NEW VENUE:  BILL’S MUSIC LOUNGE.  I just opened Bill’s Music Lounge featuring traditional songs with yours truly at the piano.  See LINK .

It’s a digital retrospective on the cocktail lounges of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s.  No tacky high-top tables and “music” that sounds like jack hammers at a construction site. Rather, enjoy popular classics and jazz standards amid plush stuffed chairs, rich mahogany accoutrement, and dim lighting suitable for relaxation, discreet rendezvous or deep thought. 

Well-endowed scantily-clad waitresses (minimum 46DDD) serve with a smile.  They even provide first aid for those seeking succor returning from yet another fist-fight with a crazed liberal.  Bill’s Music Lounge is a great place for romantic interludes, or perhaps just a quicky on the way home from work. We accommodate the prurient interest, and guard against “MeToo” entrapment.

So, grab a seat at the bar.  Or, gather around the Steinway.  I take requests.

No masks allowed.  10/29/21

• CHILLIN’ OUT.  In these dark political times that foster so much angst, anger, and constant combativeness amid a veritable communist takeover from within, one must periodically chill out to preserve sanity.  What could be more thematically apt than the Duke Ellington standard, “In a Mellow Tone”? Here’s my jazz piano arrangement, though not so mellow. LINK to video. 10/28/21

• CHINA SPACE MISSILE REMINISCENT OF SOVIET SPUTNIK SCARE.  China’s new space missile is a big deal.  It circles the global in space escaping U.S. defense systems and then strikes its target out of the blue.  The national security implications are huge considering China’s bellicose plans for global hegemony. The scare is reminiscent of the 1957 launch of Sputnik by the Soviet Union which inaugurated the space race and intensified the Cold War. 

As a kid in grade school I remember the grave concern among adults about this sudden threat.  As with the China missile, the worry was that the Soviets were on a path to colonizing space to tremendous military advantage, especially with nuclear weapons.  In response to Sputnik, backyard bomb shelters sprung up, also spurred by alarm about communist infiltration in Hollywood, government and academia that had culminated in Senator Joe McCarthy's congressional hearings just a few years earlier.

Later, President Kennedy declared a goal of putting a man on the moon by the end of the 1960s with aspirations of developing a space-based defense. The Soviet-executed Cuban missile crisis of 1962 was a catalyst to that commitment. But having achieved the moon landing in 1969, the fear disappeared with the thinking that the U.S. won the space race. The eventual end of the space program and the collapse of the Soviet Union marked a long era of complacency. 

President Trump’s creation of the Space Force could not be more opportune. Unfortunately, it got off to an inauspicious start with the rebuke and resignation of commander Lt. Colonel Matthew Lohmeier in May for his public warnings about growing Marxist ideology in the military. Climate issues and social justice reform take increasing precedence over national defense in policy-making, legislation and budgeting amid a sea of debilitating wokeness.  This does not bode well for our preparedness against Chinese aggression, nor terrestrial nuclear threats from Iran, Russia and North Korea.  10/20/21

• ON KAMALA HARRIS’ ABDICATION.  As officials convene for a U.S. – Mexico summit meeting about the border crisis, Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden’s designated “Border Czar”, opts out.  Instead, she visits a day care center and a bakery in New Jersey.  She does not want her fingerprint on the immigration debacle because it will taint her presidential hopes.  But Biden has already branded her with it through his assigned moniker.  

For a while Harris boldly stood behind Biden during his speeches as to say, “I’m next.” But now she’s hiding, purportedly having botched all her assignments.  Indeed, she has proven to be an empty pants suit. What a contrast to her predecessor, Mike Pence! It is a sorry state of affairs for America that both the president and the vice president are not functional.

The outcome is not surprising.  Harris is Biden’s openly affirmative action selection.  The leftist never garnered more than 3% in the polls during her presidential campaign and had to drop out before the Iowa caucuses.  She faced a staff mutiny that reportedly has happened again as vice president.  She is a phony unprincipled figure given to unbecoming cackling who has called for donations to bail out BLM and Antifa terrorists from jail. Given her politics, her inaction may be a blessing.

Perhaps Kamala “heels up” Harris should return to what she does best – servicing her mentor Willie Brown.  But she would have to alter her techniques because at 87 he probably requires a splint by now.  Years ago Frank Sinatra disparaged columnist Dorothy Kilgallen from the stage for something she wrote about him.  Insinuating a whoreish image, he invoked her name, held out some cash and said, “Here’s $2.” As to Kamala Harris, I’d pay her 20 bucks – Sinatra’s offer adjusted for inflation. In any case, her performance as vice president makes is worth no more than that.  10/11/21

Miscellaneous Thoughts Posted to Linked In Between July and September 2021

• • IS OBAMA BEHIND THE DISASTROUS AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL? Everyone presumes that a puppet master controls President Biden’s every move. Many speculate that person is his buddy Barack Obama and his old team acting out a de facto third term. Only an “imbecile”, in Tony Blair’s words, would have opted for the precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan that has shocked the world. Or, might someone to whom America is inimical and who harbors an affinity for Islam be so inclined? After all, if Biden is controlled on every issue, why not the Afghanistan decision? Consider facts from Obama’s background that are consistent with his allegiance to Islamic interests that might motivate a course of action that favors the Taliban.

He was born Barack HUSSEIN Obama and studied in a madrassa for four years as a child in Indonesia. He sports a perfect pronunciation of certain Arabic words. He foolishly released five leading Muslim terrorists from Gitmo in exchange for deserter Bowe Bergdahl, one of whom is now leading the Taliban in Afghanistan. He imposed severely restrictive rules of engagement over the military that prolonged the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, costing untold additional American deaths and severe injury. When President Trump lifted those restrictions, which included a prohibition against night fire, the U.S. defeated ISIS in weeks. According to military insiders, while recklessly leaving Iraq, Obama gave the enemy the GPS locations of abandoned armaments and equipment. This facilitated their immediate seizure and the creation of ISIS. What’s more, Obama as president surrounded himself with Muslim advisors according to internal witnesses and White House visitor logs.

The question becomes whether an Obama decision triggered the withdrawal of the military from Afghanistan before removing civilians while relinquishing the strategically important Bagram airbase and leaving $80 billion of sophisticated equipment to the enemy endangering tens of thousands of Americans. Was this an accommodation to his Muslim brotherhood like so many other things during his presidency? Is the current U.S. obeisance to the Taliban in part out of sympathy for Islam? What pro-America operative would concede so much? A mentally incompetent one would, but one assumes Biden is not calling any shots. 8/24/21

• CUOMO WAS RAILROADED: MEN LOSE, THE LEFT WINS.

(For context see my 2018 manifesto against #MeToo at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/war-metoo-real-story-sexual-harassment-william-j-dodwell/ )

Governor Cuomo deserves his banishment for his leftist policies, mismanagement, corruption and thuggish behavior. But the media and public piling-on he received for frivolous sexual harassment accusations is a travesty. His ousting on this basis recalls the worst days of “MeToo” which seemed to wane as people finally realized its injustices. Then the movement lost all credibility over its silence about Tara Reade’s accusations of rape and assault by Joe Biden as a senator. Now it is back.

Here is a sampling of the allegations against Cuomo: 1) A female doctor filed a claim in reaction to Cuomo’s comment, “You make that (PPE) gown look good.”, as he publicly poised for a Covid swab test. 2) Another claimant complained that Cuomo ran his finger down her back. 3) A woman recoiled at Cuomo’s grasping her waste as they stood together for a photo. 4) The woman who claims Cuomo reached under her blouse, a charge he denies, displayed a beaming smile in a photo of the two just days after the alleged incident. 5) Other harmless kisses and touching occurred in festive settings and mostly with women acquaintances.

Yet all media, on the left and right, feigned indignation, notably the conservative New York Post, which dubbed Cuomo a “creep” in its front-page headline for days, solely for his sexual misconduct. Yes, Cuomo is a creep for the nursing home scandal, his venality and his demeanor, but not for the two-bit sexual harassment charges. Strangely, the public seems duped by the outrage. Fans at a New York Mets game chanted repeatedly, “F—k you Cuomo.” It is hoped they were reacting to the nursing home debacle and not the supposed sexual improprieties. By my observation, Greg Kelly of Newsmax is the only news figure who calls the Cuomo sexual harassment nonsense for what it is – “a joke”.

The claimants and their conniving lawyers will be looking for cash settlements. But if Cuomo were to take them to court they would likely lose, as 95% of these cases fail legal scrutiny. None of the women would choose to endure the expense and public exposure of a trial. After all, their pique is phony.

The media reaction to Cuomo’s behavior has lowered the threshold for sexual misconduct to the delight of the Left bent on dividing by gender. Now men in the workplace will be even more vulnerable to sexual harassment accusations as fraudulent and frivolous claims abound. More men stand to lose their jobs, savings and families because of a revitalized “MeToo” emasculation movement. And small business owners hire women at their peril as they could so easily risk bankruptcy from sexual harassment claims founded on mere Cuomo-like offenses, real or contrived. 8/16/21

• • ·ARE THE MEDIA COVERING UP THE CUOMO NURSING HOME DEBACLE? Why the media’s gross overreaction to the comparatively minor story of Governor Cuomo’s sexual harassment brouhaha? One explanation might be media complicity in a concerted effort to cover up the much more significant nursing home catastrophe.

Cuomo accepted a $1 million contribution to his 2018 reelection campaign from the health care industry ostensibly in exchange for his executive order to transfer COVID-infected patients from hospitals to nursing homes. This freed up capacity to enable hospitals to replace the low margin Medicare patients moved to nursing homes with much higher paying privately insured patients. In addition, the solidly Democratic New York legislature overwhelmingly passed Cuomo’s bill to exempt the nursing homes from liability for deaths caused by the inevitable spread of COVID.

What’s more, Cuomo could have moved hospital patients to new facilities provided by President Trump at the Javits Convention Center (3,000 beds) and the USS Comfort (1,000 beds). Instead, he transferred the patients to nursing homes causing some 15,000 COVID deaths there. Why? Purportedly because he feared Trump would get political credit for saving lives. Wow!

The cover up scenario is even more compelling considering other Democrat governors accepted payoffs to do the same, including the odious Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and the repulsive Phil Murphy of New Jersey. And why did the Department of Justice recently decide not to investigate the nursing home scandal despite enormous public interest? Numerous Democrat politicians in combination with nursing home owners and the health care industry constitute too hot a potato to pursue.

The nursing home scandal is an exclusively Democrat problem encompassing a Democrat NY Governor, a Democrat legislature, a Democrat presidency (DOJ), and other Democrat Governors. It is easy to expect the media, the handmaiden to the Democrat Party, to come to the rescue.

Meanwhile, a duped public joins all media to take down Cuomo for chasing skirts. Sexual harassment is a red herring to distract from the much larger issue of thousands of nursing home COVID deaths at the hand of Democrats and certain donors. They hope that if Cuomo is removed, there will be no official impetus to investigate his nursing home Waterloo. 8/9/21

• WHO LET THE HORNDOGS OUT? As Governor Cuomo’s meaningless sexual harassment saga continues to dominate the news, it is fitting that we view the allegations against him in perspective. Specifically, consider the historical precedent of risqué behavior by some former presidents and other political horndogs. Sexual indulgence by those in high office, while not always condoned, is not uncommon. So, what’s the big deal?

John Tyler, our tenth president, hosted orgies in the Whitehouse along with his son. John F. Kennedy serviced his conquests on the floor of the Senate on Sunday afternoons. Lyndon Johnson, a voracious horndog, had a buzzer system that alerted him when his wife, Ladybird, was approaching so he had time to zip up. And, of course, there was Bill Clinton whose track record is legendary. Other hounds include drinking buddies, Senators Ted Kennedy and Chris Dodd, who reportedly held a waitress against a table and had their way. And let us not forget Tara Reid’s graphic sexual assault allegations on television involving Joe Biden when he was senator, not to mention his frequent sniffing of women’s hair in public and attendant touching.

Where was the outrage then? Indeed, the hypocritical publicly displayed faux indignation from liberals and conservatives today is sickening. Compared to the aforementioned horndogs, Cuomo is a piker. A key distinction, of course, is whether their actions were consensual or predatory. According to Attorney General Leticia James, we must automatically believe the eleven “girls” who testified against Cuomo, a patently inappropriate statement by an AG before a trial. In any case, the accusations against Cuomo are not really serious.

Cuomo should be hung high for his nursing home debacle, his pay-for-play scheme involving the scandalous billion-dollar development project in Buffalo, and his abrupt cancelation of the Moreland Commission investigating corruption in his administration. The current sexual harassment grandstanding in all media is merely about a not unique horndog politician at play. 8/6/21

• MEMO TO FINANCIAL WRITERS AND COMMENTATORS. File this under “picky”. Nonetheless, something has to be said. I refer to the pervasive misuse of the terms “repurchase agreement” and “reverse repurchase agreement” in financial media. Too often financial writers and commentators get them backwards. Even the Fed mistakenly references its repo liabilities as reverse repos on its website!

For the uninitiated, a repurchase agreement, formally labeled “Securities sold under agreement to repurchase”, is a contract to borrow short-term money in exchange for Treasuries as collateral. Upon maturity the transaction is unwound. The borrower reports this position as a liability on the balance sheet.

The counterparty lending the money to the borrower records a loan called a “reverse repurchase agreement”, formally known as “Securities bought under agreement to repurchase”, and receives the Treasuries as collateral. The lender reports this position as an asset on the balance sheet.

Typically, participants think of these transactions as an exchange of securities, as the formal nomenclatures suggest. But actually, they are primarily monetary liquidity events. As such, it is the money side that is recorded in the balance sheet, not the securities which are off-balance sheet memoranda entries.

The two terms are commonly confused. In fact, some years ago I advised a client to correct the misclassification on their balance sheet which had been certified for three years by a major accounting firm. It took a while to convince them, but I prevailed. After all, who were they to believe, a Big Four firm or little ole me?

The arcane repurchase agreement has come to the fore in recent weeks because the Federal Reserve has significantly increased this cash borrowing in order to withdraw liquidity from the banking system. Its purpose is to mitigate the potential inflationary impact of its ongoing near-zero interest-rate policy and bond purchases program. This stealth practice is alternative to an overt increase in the benchmark interest-rate or a reduction in bond purchases that likely would spook the financial markets.

Thus, the significance of the repo as an instrument of monetary policy lies primarily in the Fed’s repo liability, and only secondarily in the counterparty bank’s reverse repo asset. Yet, the media frequently voice the term “reverse repurchase agreement” incorrectly with respect to the Fed’s liquidity mitigation tactic. Wrong usage hampers the reading and analysis of monetary policy. 8/5/21

• IN DEFENSE OF GOVERNOR CUOMO. Leftist New York Governor Cuomo’s policies are anathema. In addition, he is a vindictive Mafioso-style thug who would steal your watch if he thought he could. However, the just released ballyhooed report of State Attorney General Leticia James about sexual harassment accusations against him is a nothing-burger.

The narrative in part is to feign indignation in all quarters to revive the comatose #MeToo emasculation movement. To that end, President Biden and leading Democrats finally call for Cuomo’s resignation. And the spineless Republicans, even conservatives, go along in fear of losing women’s support. #MeToo met near-death over its hypocritical silence concerning the rape testimony of Tara Reid against Joe Biden during his campaign. In short order, she mysteriously disappeared. With the AG’s report, Democrats believe Cuomo is radioactive among women voters and feminized men. In addition, Cuomo’s resignation or impeachment would clear the path for black woman Democrat AG James’ candidacy for the governorship in 2022.

The problem with the current bandwagon support for the report is that the relatively innocuous charges against Cuomo will further bolster a frivolous standard for sexual misconduct accusations against ordinary men. They face losing their jobs, careers, wives, savings and reputations for such things as an alleged “grope” years ago. Grifters, man-hating lesbians and corrupt lawyers go to town in extortion attempts. We saw so much of this in the #MeToo heyday. This injustice must end. (See my 2018 manifesto on this topic at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/war-metoo-real-story-sexual-harassment-william-j-dodwell/ )

Cuomo appears to be a natural horndog. Good for him. Without horndogs there would be a lot more lonely women. But the #MeToo environment has created a lot more lonely men. Horndogs have natural rights too. The solution for inappropriate sexual conduct is simple: Step1, an emphatic No. Step 2, the age-old slap in the face. Step 3, a kick in the the b---s. Only a psychopath would continue after that treatment. The infractions cited in the report were a touch here, a kiss there … So what? I know of such actions on several women who the next day displayed plunging cleavage that said, “I want more.” This attitude among women is closer to normal than the Victorian infantile standard of radical feminists bent on disempowering men.

Cuomo should go to prison for his complicity in the deaths of some 15,000 nursing home residents who were infected by Medicare COVID patients he transferred from hospitals. The health care industry paid him $1 million to free up the hospitals for much more lucrative privately insured patients. What’s more, Cuomo could have moved the patients to about 3,000 empty beds in the Javits Convention Center and 1,000 in the USS Comfort, both provided by Trump. The scuttlebutt says that Cuomo did not do so because he thought Trump would get too much credit politically. What a creep! 8/4/21

• IN THE SACK WITH SIMONE BILES. With so much attention on 24 year-old Olympic gymnast Simone Biles and her craft, a man cannot help but wonder how she naturally would transition her talents to the boudoir as sexual acrobatics. I suspect nothing less than a tour de force. Warning: This piece is R-rated.

Hey guys, can you imagine this chick in the sack? Judging by her sinews, she could crush a man like a boa constrictor and grip his tool with the vulvar force of a hydraulic vice. She would leap in the air, bound off the wall, tumble into a triple somersault, bounce her butt off the ceiling, and land on top with a leg-split in perfect position - fully penetrated.

Then she would execute a labia contraction that would elicit a reaction ranging from “Ooooooh baaaaaaaaby” to “Ouuuuuch!”, depending on the guy’s tolerance. When finished she would command lustfully, “Now let’s see what you can do.” The response would call for either desperate performance or self-defense.

A session with Simone Biles as sexlete is a tossup between euphoria and death. But I’d take my chances (if I were forty years younger). How about you? 8/3/21

• ABOUT SIMONE BILES. Suddenly, star Olympic gymnast, Simone Biles, has a mental health issue causing her to withdraw from the Tokyo Olympics. What’s more, it appears the feminist left is trying to exploit her fate by linking her exit to career-long sexual abuse at the hands of now imprisoned former Olympic doctor, Larry Nassar. But she reported no such impairment on her way to the gold in 2016, or even up to the recent 2021 qualifying round when she suffered significant missteps. This is not to diminish Nassar’s behavior, which even I cited in my world-renown 2018 manifesto against the corrupt #MeToo crusade as an example of legitimate prosecutable sexual misconduct (along with the Cosby case). https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/war-metoo-real-story-sexual-harassment-william-j-dodwell/ I smell a rat here. The #MeToo crowd is trying to revive their flagging discredited movement by trotting out the sexual abuse hobby-horse again in a high-profile case.

I believe Biles experienced a perhaps first-time muscle-memory lapse that dashed her confidence. Baseball infielders have succumbed to this phenomenon, called the “yips”, especially throwing to first base. Recall New York Yankee Golden Glove second baseman, Chuck Knoblauch, in the late 1990s losing his ability to hit the first baseman consistently. He never overcame the problem. The mental block also plagues football receivers and golfers.

I can relate to this issue from my experience in the pole vault, a quasi-gymnastic event. (As a senior in high school I finished 5th in the Eastern States Championships.) A mental lapse sometimes affected my planting the pole in the vault box while running full speed, thus throwing off my position on the pole and the mechanics of my ascent. Once I withdrew from a competition because of this.

The affliction is all psychological as it kills indispensable confidence. Abruptly losing her bearings during aerial twists, Biles probably withdrew so not to suppress her team score. Fortunately, a team mate won the gold anyway. But unlike baseball, football, and even pole vaulting, flawed timing in gymnastics could result in a broken neck. This had to be on her mind. 8/2/21

• • BRING BACK THE PHONE BOOTH!  We need a social protocol for wireless phones.  People blab away with no regard for their own privacy, much less others’.  Here are a couple of experiences that prompt my protestation. 

While indulging my morning right-wing fix engrossed in The Wall Street Journal editorials sitting at a table at Dunkin Donuts, a customer on line next to me bellows over his Smart phone distracting me.  These WSJ pieces usually require intense concentration, not only because of their substance, but also because so often they are poorly written. (Do something, Paul Gigot!)  What right do these inconsiderate telephonic personal-space invaders have over others in their midst?

About ten years ago I was asleep on the commuter train on the way home at night.  I’m talkin’ serious REM.  Suddenly, the piercing voice of the guy in front of me on a cell phone woke me up. I was furious.  I told him to get off his damn cell phone or go to the vestibule.  In a fog, I was so incensed I slipped in a gay slur that really lit him up. He stood up and I followed.  Then this oaf, some thirty years my junior, knocked my glasses off to the floor and challenged me to a fist-fight at the next station stop.

Full disclosure:  I do not have a Smart phone; I only keep a prepaid flip phone in my car’s glove department for emergencies.  So, I have no heroine-like communication impulse, or any tolerance for the devices when they invade my sphere. I am not alone, am I?.  It is time for action.  Bring back the phone booth!  7/28/21

• • THIS IS HUGE! IS BIG PHARMA PAYING OFF FAUCI? Reference: Carl Paladino email received Jul 9, 2021, 1:03 PM. Carl Paladino was the 2010 GOP nominee for Governor of New York. He wrote the following:

Deep State Dr. Fauci Mysteriously Earned $9,000,000 in 2020

Deep State Dr. Anthony Fauci had a lucrative 2020, netting $9,000,000 in “miscellaneous income,” according to an NIH insider who told RRN that Fauci bragged about his newfound wealth and said he had earned enough cash in 2020 to retire, buy a private plane and jet-set around the world.

Fauci is hardly a pauper; his annual salary at the NIH is $417,000. He was the highest-paid federal employee in 2019, with a salary greater than the president’s. Additionally, 2019 public records estimate his net worth at approximately $2,700,000, a hefty nest egg for a so-called public servant.

The question begs, how did his financial net worth triple in just one year?

He certainly earns a bit appearing on mainstream media and from speaking engagements but didn’t bloviate into a $9,000,000 windfall.

Our source, an underpaid NIH lab technician, said Fauci wouldn’t reveal specifics on how he—or anyone—could declare $9,000,000 in miscellaneous income, but proved he had by showing a certified copy of his 2020 tax returns.

“The Fauci you seen in public and the real Fauci are two different people. Fauci likes to get loaded, if you know what I mean. Weird for an old guy, but whatever. So, last month we’re at the Barking Dog, a bar in Bethesda, about eight of us and Fauci after work. He’s getting his drink on and pelting them back at a good clip. And, no, in case you’re wondering, none of us at the table were wearing masks, including Fauci. So, he’s had four, five or six and then starts bragging about all this money he’s making, and some of us call bullshit. And he pulls from his briefcase a copy of his tax records and a recent bank statement showing over ten million bucks in the account,” our source said.

He said he asked Fauci whether the money came from Covid-19 vaccination sales.

“He wouldn’t say yes and he wouldn’t say no, smirking the whole time. He admitted, though, he was going to make 10 times as much money in 2021,” our source said. 

RRN confirmed the source’s identity and job, and contacted John McManus, co-owner of the Barking Dog. Mr. McManus said, “Dr. Fauci is a regular patron who enjoys his drinks.” 7/12/21

• 4TH OF JULY AMBIVALENCE.  It is difficult for many Americans to invoke the greatness of our nation this July 4th in view of how far and quickly the Left has diminished it.  Open borders, massive election fraud, tyrannical censure, official lawlessness, manic government spending, and institutional wokeness betray an unprecedented Marxist transition.  America is becoming unrecognizable amid an increasingly gullible public.  Indeed, we have gone from Reagan’s “morning in America” to “mourning in America”.

But we can embrace the glass half-full with yesterday’s grandeur and hope a galvanized opposition and chastened electorate will soon stanch the erosion.  Then we can recapture the sovereign values and principles we used to celebrate on this occasion.  In that spirit, I present my piano arrangement of “America The Beautiful” in tribute to past glory and the historical resilience to recover it.   7/4/21

Miscellaneous Thoughts Posted to Linked In Between April and June 2021

• • COURT SILENCES GIULIANI - POLITBURO STYLE.  With no evidence, the NY State Supreme Court suspended Rudy Giuliani’s NY law license for posing a “threat” to the public through his “lies” about the November 2020 presidential election. The court said his claims weaken a nation supposedly riven over the legitimacy of the president, as evidenced by the “insurrection” on January 6th.  WHAT NONSENSE! The court denied Giuliani’s freedom of speech to cite abundant evidence of gross election irregularities corroborated by witnesses.  In fact, all the courts refused to hear his case for fear of a successful prosecution.

Instead, Giuliani had to present evidence to state legislatures. Some legislators recanted and tried to challenge election certification on January 6th. Others, in light of ongoing audits in Arizona and Georgia, are calling for their own audits. Evidence? See Peter Navarro's three-volume study on the November 2020 debacle. A summary appears at https://lnkd.in/d2TUG87 (start at 3:06:21)

The most horrifying revelation of the November 2020 experience is the cowardice and corruption of the courts, including SCOTUS. We have come to expect venality in Congress, the Administration and media. But until now the judiciary has been the last line of defense against it. Its abdication is a severe threat to the Republic, not Giuliani. 6/28/21

• • WHAT THE HELL IS JUNETEENTH?  We all know that June 19th is now a national holiday commemorating the end of slavery in 1865.  But as a matter of linguistic curiosity, why is it called Juneteenth? 

Nowhere in media is this obvious question raised.  All references to the term revert to stock verbiage about the holiday’s founding but never explain the idiom.  It is like the recent Saturday Night Live skit featuring Elon Musk in which he avoids the definition of Dogecoin.  When asked several times what it is, Musk just repeated marketing blather without defining it, only to concede it is a con.  Whether that is the case with Juneteenth is a question for another day.

A Google search discloses only that Juneteenth is a blend of June and nineteenth.  But the same term could apply to June thirteenth through eighteenth. The holiday started as Freedom Day, then became Jubilee Day, and finally Juneteenth in the 1890s. Does the universal silence about the term’s etymology suggest something politically incorrect that warrants suppression? At the very least, the omission is yet another example of journalists not doing their job. 6/21/21

• • ESG:  SOCIALIST TOOL. Left-wing zealots aim to re-direct capital according to ESG criteria in the effort to force diversity, climate-change and stakeholder interests in corporate policies. Many cravenly woke CEOs oblige.

Leftist asset-management firm BlackRock is in the vanguard of ESG investing.  With $9 trillion under management it has unparalleled control over investor proxy votes it casts in support of progressive issues.  So do liberal proxy advisory firms that recommend votes to fund managements on behalf of investors.  Money managers also push ESG investments for the higher fees, lower returns notwithstanding.   

An expensive proxy fight forced ExxonMobil to place three environmental activists on its Board. They hope to switch the firm’s production away from fossil fuels, which will result in oil shortages and higher prices. 

Private-equity firms consider linking compensation to the ESG profile of investee companies. In particular, new carbon emission risk raises bond yields and the cost of capital for all issuers.

Even the Federal Reserve contemplates augmenting its historical dual economic mandate to incorporate climate-change. Noncompliance would result in restrictions on bank lending and other capital deployment to the detriment of profitability and investor returns. 

The left has designated corporate America a role in creeping socialism.  A growing ESG footprint is one of the measures.  6/16/21

• THE MASK FREAKS PERSIST.  Leftist NJ Governor Murphy lifted all Covid restrictions May 19th. (He is up for reelection in November.)  But many continue to wear masks even though statistics suggest the pandemic is virtually over.  What is wrong with these people?  Some do it out of sheer ignorance about the real danger of the China virus.  Others wear a mask because of irrational fear rooted in emotional instability. Perhaps the unvaccinated are just extra cautious. The vaccinated ones are real idiots.

These weaklings personify the apathy that feeds the socialism now visible in government, media, academe, corporations, Big Tech and even the military. Unmandated mask-wearing is emblematic of leftist brainwashing that encourages yet more intransigence.  This mindlessness is a big reason why a demented blathering fool (nominally) won the Whitehouse last November.  The mask brigade plays right into the hands of the propagandists.

It is time to shame the mask freaks who embolden the government tyrants.  Visibly frown and snicker at them.  Ask them why they still don the cloth.  Make them feel like fools. Maybe this treatment will make some of them realize their stupidity and motivate them to think rationally when they cast their ballots.  6/3/21

• • BILLY JOEL’S “JUST THE WAY YOU ARE”.  Taking a break from my political warfare, I present my piano rendition of Billy Joel’s “Just The Way You Are” at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-oxGqAHBoo  5/18/21

  • ·ARE INFLATION WORRIES OVERBLOWN?  Unexpected y/y inflation of 4.2% in April has raised broad concern.  But that price rise derives from a COVID depressed baseline that reflects 4.1% deflation in April 2020.  Subsequent y/y inflation will incorporate recovering 2020 prices. 

Natural inflation from pent-up demand amid receding COVID concerns is to be expected.  Ideally, balanced supply and demand will stabilize prices, but certain temporary disruptions loom. 

Considerable inflation arises from widespread price increases to compensate for COVID losses.  Labor shortages will diminish as unemployment benefits expire.  Energy disturbance at the Colonial Pipeline will end soon.  However, a protracted chip scarcity restricts manufacturing.  And the Keystone pipeline stoppage ensures higher oil prices. 

More problematic is $6 trillion of government stimulus that the Fed finances by creating money.  The Fed also encourages excessive spending everywhere through extremely low interest rates.  A key control is the Fed’s timing of interest rate hikes which it will defer until inflation reaches a sustained 2%. 

While expected robust growth and the end of temporary disruptions will contain inflation, prolonged capacity constraints and unchecked fiscal and monetary stimulus will entrench it.  5/17/21

• THE LIZ CHENEY REBUKE:  AN OPENING SALVO FOR 2024.  The vote to remove Liz Cheney as House Republican Conference Chair sends a clear message about the new GOP:  Anti-Trumpers and 2020 election fraud deniers are not welcome.  The next step is to name a suitable primary opponent and flip her seat in November 2022.  Meantime, let us hope the new Conference Chair, Elise Stefanik, will express full-throated support for the Trump credo in her public GOP communications.  This is questionable.  5/12/21

• WHAT I’M HEARING AT THE DINER.  Scuttlebutt at the local diner can be a bellwether for national thought.  Here is what I am hearing.

The diner cannot hire enough staff because prospects choose to stay home collecting enhanced unemployment benefits.  As a result, the angry manager and the assistant manager have to wait tables, and employees have to work up to eleven-hour shifts. 

People think Biden is doing a good job.  They are blinded by the stimulus checks and their lofty 401(k) balances. They have no understanding of the long-term effects of all the profligate spending on inflation and the national debt.  One customer said, “Just take the money.”  As Rush Limbaugh used to say, “It’s tough competing with Santa Clause.” 

A waitress expressed her chagrin about President Trump detaining migrant children in “cages” apparently unaware of worse conditions under Biden and Obama. She believes the lie that Trump created the chaos.  Never mind that Biden lured migrants by the hundreds of thousands after Trump stanched the flow and then shut down unneeded detainment facilities. 

A customer wore a mask until her order was ready and then dangled it from one ear while eating.  Talk about brainwashed! 

The effectiveness of liberal media propaganda is appalling. 5/11/21

• • FEDERAL STUDENT LOAN TAXPAYER LOSSES:  I TOLD YOU SO.  The Wall Street Journal published a front-page piece on 4/30/21 about a 2019 report produced by a retired Chase executive for Education Secretary Betsy De Vos.  That report detailed bad accounting that long distorted the reported profitability of the student loan program.  It confirms my 2015 white paper that also exposed the flawed government accounting methodologies that yielded annual reported profits that really were significant losses.  Upon completion, I sent my report to two congressional committees and the Editorial Board of the Journal.  See my paper at  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2653119

At bottom, the 2019 report concluded that the current $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio is overvalued by about $500 billion.  This implied 33% default rate corroborates the radical inadequacy of the 13% rate reported by the government at the time of my report.  That default shortfall formed the basis of the hidden taxpayer losses that both reports highlight.

Since the Biden administration rejects the De Vos report as politically motivated, the chicanery on the people will continue.  But perhaps the issue is moot because Biden may eventually grant blanket loan forgiveness.  He currently proposes a $10,000 reduction of every loan.  5/6/21

• • GOVERNOR CUOMO SHOULD CLAIM HORNDOG RIGHTS.  Governor Cuomo’s tribulations regarding ongoing #MeToo sexual harassment allegations could be a lightning rod for horndog equity and the notion that men too deserve protection.  Specifically, under the U.S. Constitution they have the inalienable right to the pursuit of happiness, even through carnal indulgence.  In fact, it would behoove Cuomo to invoke horndog rights in his own defense.  At present, society views sexual harassment solely from the perspective of women as they often level nonsensical career-ending accusations against men, sometimes for profit and from decades prior.

It is time to fight back.  Cuomo could lead the charge on behalf of fellow horndogs vis a vis #MeToo, especially in the workplace. Their actions have been integral to human relations throughout history.  While men must temper their impulses, they must not be stifled as to deny receptive women their wont.  Indeed, horndogs do a service.  The issue would be a vote-getter on the hustings, and law firms could create a new practice in horndog rights.   

Cuomo’s nursing home debacle, his leftist politics, and his thuggish style are anathema.  But through his advocacy for horndog rights, he could restore balance in the battle of the sexes.  5/3/21

• HOW ABOUT ANOTHER #MeToo JOKE?  In support of NY Governor Cuomo as he faces continued media scorn for meaningless #MeToo sexual harassment accusations, and in commiseration with office horndogs everywhere, I present another of my #MeToo jokes.  (I posted this four years ago in the wake of Bill O’Reilly’s firing by Fox News.)

Sally works in the accounting department at Deep Pockets Corporation.  But she moonlights at a local strip club.  She swings from a pole until 3 am with dollar bills protruding from every orifice (customer tips).  Then she goes home and bangs four guys before breakfast. 

She manages to roll into the office at 10:30 whereupon her boss, Ed, overlooking her lateness, says with a smile, “You look nice today.”  Sally snaps indignantly, “How dare you reduce me to an object of your prurient interest.  I’m deeply hurt.”  

She proceeded to file a $7 million sexual harassment lawsuit ------ and WON!  Now she owns the strip joint. 4/29/21

• • THE OSCARS BOMB BIG TIME.  HOW SWEET IT IS!  The 2021 Oscars program registered historically low ratings as less than 10 million viewers watched. That is 58% less than last year’s nadir and more than 80% off its 1998 peak of 60 million pairs of eyeballs. This is a veritable orgasm for conservatives.

As a perennial online Oscars boycotter, I did not watch the program.  However, I did look at some newspaper accounts and television video clips.  What a farce!  Still reacting to past criticism about a lack of diversity, the producers went all out to highlight “people of color”.  It was a pandering fest that clearly invoked the Bard’s admonition, “Doth protest too much.” The sermons about mythical systemic racism and police brutality just galvanized racial division.

I believe we have witnessed a paradigm shift in which Hollywood is no longer interested in the traditional ceremony.  Rather, it has decided to use the program as a tool to promote far-left views, and the ratings be damned. I have not been in a movie theater since 1989 when I saw “The Dead Poets Society” starring Robin Williams.  I am long past the point of no return.  4/27/21  

• • A #MeToo PLOT GONE WRONG.  Harriet and Phyllis walked into a bar at 10 pm.  Their mission:  To entrap men into contrived sexual misconduct to establish a #MeToo lawsuit and cash settlement.  They were armed with concealed video and audio equipment, as well as copious guidance from their lawyers of the esteemed firm, Sleeze, Slime and Scumbag LLP.   

Harriet:  I’ll start at the left end of the bar while you begin your magic on the other side.  We’ll meet in the middle at 2 am. 

Phyllis:  My lawyer says to lure them aggressively but quickly feign revulsion for the camera shot.

Harriet:  Yeah. My lawyer says it’s all about proving non-consensual contact. Place his hand in an erogenous zone and look horrified for the photo.

Fast forward to 2 am.

The gals were exhausted.  Hair was tousled and mascara dripped down their faces. 

Harriet:  We both rolled snake eyes.  I don’t get it.  Back in the day guys lined up for this action.

Phyllis:  Me too.  Even the bartender used to join in.

Harriet:  Phyllis, what’s that picture on the back wall?  

Phyllis:  Holy sh—t.  It’s a life size mural of Johnny Mathis. 

Harriet and Phyllis:  Yikes! This is a gay bar!

Poetic justice.  4/26/21

• • LESSONS LEARNED FROM CUOMO’S SEXUAL HARRASSMENT ORDEAL. Men should learn from NY Governor Cuomo’s amorous misadventures.  An office horndog must be a good one or risk Cuomo’s fate.  Here are some rules to follow.

1.     Select discreet venues for all assignations, such as the cloak room, the supply closet or the boiler room, and never blow your cover.  Avoid cameras and witnesses.

2.     Be persuasive enough in the initial overtures to ensure a consensual experience so not to invite sexual misconduct complaints.  This takes work.

3.     Perform well.  If a woman is satisfied, she is less likely to #MeToo you because she will want to return for more. As such, stay in shape.

4.     Be careful in the boiler room.  When the lady is in the throws of passion she must not bang on the pipes.  The noise travels throughout the building inevitably attracting several custodians. (See #1 about blowing one’s cover.)

5. If the lady expects something more romantic than the boiler room, bring flowers.

What ever happened to “Get a room.”?, one might ask. The horndog cannot risk absence from the office for too long, especially if he has a reservation to use the cloak room with another subject.   

F**k you #MeToo!  4/23/21

• • IGNORE THE OSCARS ON SUNDAY.  It is time for my annual appeal to avoid the Oscar ceremony on television.  This act of defiance contributed to historically low ratings in two of the last three years. The industry is on the ropes this year because of Covid.  Let’s deliver another punch that sends it to the canvas.  

Super-woke Hollywood is an archenemy of American tradition.  To put this leftist, Marxist-Leninist, socialist, anti-Christian, anti-American, commie, pinko enterprise out of business would be hugely beneficial.  Imagine – Hollywood today, the teachers’unions tomorrow. The gloves are on.  4/22/21

• IMPENDING CHAUVIN VERDICT INVOKES MY PERSONAL RODNEY KING SCARE.  Awaiting the verdict in the Chauvin case, I recall a scary experience while the jury deliberated in the similar 1992 Rodney King trial in L.A. 

In NYC during lunch, I witnessed chanting in anticipation of the looming verdict.  The atmosphere was so tense that my employer sent employees home at 3 pm in taxis at company expense.  But I stayed in the office alone working because I usually treated myself to entertainment on Friday nights. 

Undeterred, I took the subway to a jazz club. While riding at about 9 pm I suddenly thought about the verdict possibly breaking at any minute. I became so preoccupied I missed my stop at 96th St.  The next one was 125th St. in the heart of Harlem.  There I was, a lone honky, in the black capital of the world at night when my colleagues ran home in cabs at 3 pm to escape possible race riots.

Surprisingly, the station was spacious with a cathedral-like ceiling that suggested God peering down saying, “I got your back, man.”  I went to the predominately white club and stayed till about midnight. I returned home to New Jersey by cab.  4/20/21

• ·OUR INSTITUTIONS ARE FAILING US. BYE, BYE AMERICAN PIE.  Far-left politics and corruption permeate the nation’s institutions at the expense of freedom, meritocracy, security, the quality of life, trust and truth. Here are examples of the scourge in media, law enforcement, the judiciary, the scientific community, education, corporate America, the military, and the U.S. Postal Service. 

Media – Mass media have become grossly dishonest in the zeal to promote far-left politics.  Traditional objective investigative journalism is gone, replaced by hyper-partisanship fraught with agenda-driven lies, distortion and omission. The tyranny of social media with its exemption from lawsuits provides significant accommodation to leftist propaganda.  Regarding election fraud in the November 2020 election, even conservative media outrageously look the other way, dishonestly claiming no evidence.  All media say that to discuss the election fraud risks inciting insurrection.  Does truth mean anything anymore? The main ballast for conservatives continues to be talk radio, but without Rush Limbaugh now that medium has suffered a setback.    

Law enforcement – The corruption of the Department of Justice and the election of Marxist, Soros-backed attorneys general have seriously undermined the rule of law. This is manifest in open border policies, sanctuary cities and states, the castration of police departments, and mass prison release. DOJ corruption has enabled prosecutorial exemption for Secretary Hillary Clinton’s pay-to-play operations involving her Clinton Foundation, the FBI’s attempt to bring down a sitting president, President Biden’s influence peddling with China and Ukraine, and massive fraud in the 2020 presidential election.   In the wake of the George Floyd death and similar incidents, liberals have promoted a war on cops without any regard for the fact that almost invariably the perpetrator foolishly resisted arrest provoking a police reaction in self-defense. As a result of trumped up public opprobrium and the risk of frivolous prosecution, police have curtailed engagement to the peril of the community.

The judiciary – A most glaring injustice was the refusal of the courts, including SCOTUS, to hear cases claiming rampant election fraud in November 2020, despite abundant evidence publicly available.  They feared the consequences of a successful prosecution that would nullify the initial election result. Relief also would incite accusations of racism and voter disenfranchisement because the disqualified ballots would affect largely black precincts of battleground states. This is more disruption than most judges or jurors would want to create.  Nonetheless, this abrogation of duty cannot stand. On another front, many leftist judges release criminals to endanger communities out of sympathy for them and disregard for their victims.  Others, faithful to the rule of law, are bound by absurd no-bail laws.  Currently, the Supreme Court is in danger of degrade by Democrat calls to add four more justices in what would be dangerous added politicization of the body.

The scientific community (COVID-19) – The left has compromised some in the scientific community as evidenced by their support of COVIC-19 mitigation protocols challenged by science.  On the other hand, some officials dismiss inexpensive therapeutics, hydroxycloroquine and Ivermectin, despite their effectiveness established in studies and some cases.  One has to suspect collaboration between certain scientists and Big Pharma in the quest for a vaccine payday. The alliance between the left, Democrat governors and media in promoting the political aspects of the vaccine is more transparent.  Chief among the medical hacks is the notorious Dr. Anthony Fauci, darling of the left. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, declared outlandishly that BLM and Antifa protesters should be exempt from social distancing because of the greater import of their social justice message. Meanwhile, mass media and some in the medical community muzzle contrarian scientists, while other medical authorities willfully remain silent for fear of losing their funding or job.  

Education – Marxist socialist indoctrination infects our youth at all educational levels now.  In particular, officials emphasize a concept of ersatz racial injustice called “critical race theory”.  In addition, a seemingly deliberate degradation of academic standards and curricula, including a re-writing or elimination of American history, has taken hold.  The aim is to discourage critical thinking and patriotism that interfere with establishing a top-down socialist state sustained by maximum voter support of the Democrat Party.

Corporate America – CEOs do the bidding of the Democrat Party through craven submission to political correctness founded on the victimhood theme of identity politics rooted in the promotion of racial, gender and sexuality differences.  Increasingly, these industrial cowards embrace environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations in corporate policy to curry favor with leftist regulators and the cocktail circuit that might otherwise cause problems for them. The Federal Reserve Bank plans to expand its historical mandate of ensuring price stability and optimal employment to incorporate environmental and social justice issues in its monetary policy.

The military – Wokeness has infiltrated even the military as it sacrifices a degree of national security supporting the left’s agenda.  Political correctness has become de rigeur and compliance is indispensable for promotion through the ranks.  “Critical race theory” training is nauseating personnel.  Reportedly, Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, is targeting conservatives for expulsion.

The U.S. Postal Service - Many do not trust the post office anymore.  Today there are reports of mail carriers stealing tax refunds and intercepting tax returns to get data to file bogus ones. They also work with identity thieves who pay them for newly issued credit cards.  And, last November internet videos showed mail clerks opening ballots to discard Trump votes.  In addition, crooks invade mail boxes to forge checks within envelopes.  John Crudele of the New York Post wrote an article February 20, 2020 citing testimony of postal workers about improprieties https://nypost.com/2020/02/19/messages-from-employees-prove-the-us-postal-service-is-in-disarray/.  One said that saving on labor costs is paramount.  As such, carriers and managers throw out mail and falsify tracking data to hide delivery problems in order to limit time worked.

As the nation’s Constitutional moorings and institutional integrity wane amid forces dedicated to socialist transformation, the seeds of division, resentment and mistrust sprout.  Unrestrained, the development paves the path to third-world status.  It is hoped the checks and balances built into the republic will survive to trigger corrective action before it is too late. 4/19/21

• • DEMOCRATS AND CORPORATE AMERICA FIGHT ELECTION INTEGRITY. The reaction to Georgia slightly tightening its election rules is quite telling.  The left, which now includes pathetically woke corporate CEOs, absurdly claims the changes suppress voting access for minorities, while completely ignoring consideration of voter fraud.

Delta, Coca Cola and MLB vociferously denounced the new Georgia law, and the threat of state boycotts abound. President Biden and others flatly lied about the changes.  And, some 300 CEOs and prominent individuals appear as signatories in a two-page ad in The Wall Street Journal and New York Times supporting fair access to voting, a suggestion that the Georgia law does not. 

The left is preparing to throw the 2022 and 2024 elections.  A fear of a Trump reemergence and a determination to implement its radical agenda by hook-or-by-crook are the motivations. Encouraged by the ability to commit massive fraud with impunity in 2020, all systems are go to do it again.  Republicans must promote more election amendments throughout the country, ensure strict enforcement, and fiercely stand up to the backlash.  It is the least they can do for having capitulated to the left in their cowardly refusal to challenge, or even mention, last November’s blatant injustice. 4/15/21

• • ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL (AGAIN):  THE ARCHEGOS AND GREENSILL DEBACLES. Credit Suisse lost $4.7 billion on investments in hedge fund Archegos, and likely another $1.5 billion from bonds Greensill issued.  The quest for higher returns amid rock-bottom interest rates motivated investment in riskier instruments.

The trigger for the Archegos loss was margin calls on CBS/Viacom Total Return Swaps that were leveraged 80%.  Falling swap valuations precipitated the call, forcing frantic selling. As a derivative, that captures only the earnings stream of the underlying company rather than its shares, the TRS is permitted greater leverage.  And, as off-balance sheet positions, they were less transparent in disclosures.

The trigger for the Greensill loss was the termination of credit insurance on its risky short-term supply-chain loans because of undue concentration in only two insurers. That forced Credit Suisse to freeze investment in Greensill’s asset-backed securities, significantly reducing funding for its underlying loans.

Was Credit Suisse not aware of Archegos’ excessive leverage, as well as Greensill’s precarious credit insurance and loan quality? Silos again? What about Greensill’s lending criteria, and due diligence by its bond Trustee and its Auditor?  Caveat emptor. 4/12/21

• MORE OFFICE SEX FROLICS OF YESTERYEAR (fourth in a series)

The purpose of my satire is to defy and mock the #MeToo ethic and the feigned media outrage over Governor Cuomo’s innocuous sexual overtures. Nonetheless, he’s a wimp compared to the office horndogs of yore. Here are more stories about how it used to be.

An accountant ensconced in the boiler room was locked into missionary position eye to eye with Miss McGillicuddy, the head of Personnel. Since she was about to sign off on his upcoming annual review, he was thinking, “I better be good.” Now that’s pressure.

An advantage of the supply room was the opportunity to prop up against boxes of copier paper for leverage. The ladies loved it.

At night the cleaning lady became available. She was fully aware of the antics during the day as she had to dispose of the rubbers left in the employee hideaways. That sight piqued her interest in the festivities. With her bulging cleavage and fluttering eyes, the curvaceous latina waved her feather duster and asked a guy in a heavy Spanish accent, “Can I be of service?” They bolted to the copier room.

Unfortunately, escapades like these are over. Thanks, #MeToo. For nothing. 4/9/21

• MORE OFFICE SEX FROLICS OF YESTERYEAR (third in a series).  Yet another harmless sexual harassment accusation against Governor Cuomo hits the headlines. 

In recent posts I discussed three principal spots for office assignations back in the day:  the cloak room, the supply room and the boiler room.  But there was more leeway working late.  Given the sparse population, the copier room was available for rendezvous in which the machine could be used as a prop for various positions.  One just had to be on the lookout for a security guard milling around. 

And there was the cleaning lady.  She knew what was going on.  After all, she swept up the condoms on the cloak room floor every night. Juanita took the hint and hiked her skirt a little further each day.  Inside a week her hemline was mid-ass.  One night she made a beeline to the copier room and worked the machine like a pole in a strip club.  Writhing about, she put the lid up, the lid down, the paper tray open, the paper tray closed, and then she spun the thing around and straddled it.  Whooo!   

 Could any of this happen today?  What a shame.  In the absurd #MeToo culture the party is over. 4/8/21  

• MORE ABOUT CUOMO’S SEXUAL HARASSMENT VS. YESTERDAY’S OFFICE FROLICS.  In a post last week I lamented Governor Cuomo’s absurd sexual harassment crucible and noted its stark contrast to the office hijinks of yesteryear.

I mentioned how the cloak room and the supply closet used to be common venues for trysts.  But another option was the basement boiler room. While the heat could be brutal, the noise suppressed the moans and squeals, a problem when using the cloak room. A bra hanging from an overhead pipe meant the area was occupied. 

 Sometimes the woman was the aggressor. One was Dirty Dotty, DD for short.  Smart and diligent, she got a well-deserved promotion. To celebrate, she invited the guys in Accounting to her lair in the boiler room.   At the entrance appeared a large banner with blinking lights that read, “DD’s Den.  Let The Games Begin.”  A good time was had by all.

 There was no sexual harassment claim or childish whining about a “grope”.  Discreet libidinous indulgence was acceptable in the office.  And it probably would be today but for “MeToo” inspired political correctness.  Unfortunately, litigious women and their crooked lawyers spoil the party when they smell cash settlement. LINK TO 2018 MANIFESTO. 4/6/21  

• INFLATION:  THE STORM AFTER THE CALM.  My armchair instincts tell me serious inflation might be in store after a long period of stability.  Something has to give what with the humongous fiscal and monetary stimulus underway and planned.

Many feared inflation in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis given protracted near-zero short-term interest rates and mammoth servings of quantitative easing by the Fed, coupled with $900 billion of “shovel ready” government spending.  But inflation in the real economy did not materialize amid tepid economic growth.  Rather, capital gravitated to financial assets for greater returns while inflation failed to reach a 2% target. 

 A similar pattern appears today but accompanied by economic growth borne out of post-pandemic pent-up demand.  And seemingly redundant monetary and fiscal stimulus, many multiples of the GFC injection, could overwhelm productive capacity sending prices spiraling upward.  The insurmountable national debt, higher interest rates, and dollar depreciation, abetted by Biden’s growth-stifling tax increases and re-regulation, could augur ill for a decade.  Inflation and growth forecasts are salutary over the next year.  But surging inflation eventually could trigger a spent force that yields perilous 1970s-style stagflation. 4/5/21